B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$118.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
PFGC
Performance Food GroupCNYSE / Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The post-print readthrough improved: trusted secondary coverage showed Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.80 versus roughly $0.77 consensus and revenue of about $16.29 billion versus roughly $16.17 billion, while management also tightened FY26 sales and EBITDA ranges after saying adjusted EBITDA landed above the top end of February guidance. Early May 7 sell-side follow-through was constructive, with Citi and Barclays target increases and a still-strong-buy consensus backdrop.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.6.
What can break
First-nine-month results still included higher interest expense, acquisition-related costs, and legal/professional fees tied to shareholder activism and the clean team agreement with US Foods.
Momentum
29
Value
53
Sentiment
69
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $101.00 · Bull $118.00 · Bear $82.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-08
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $130.27
Why
Momentum29 · Δ7d -3.1
Value53 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment69 · Δ7d +6.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • First-nine-month results still included higher interest expense, acquisition-related costs, and legal/professional fees tied to shareholder activism and the clean team agreement with US Foods.
- • If the company misses the tightened FY26 EBITDA range or fails to convert independent volume gains into margin expansion, the post-earnings rerating could reverse quickly.
- • The print was not clean enough to justify an aggressive upgrade.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-15
Post-earnings reaction stayed constructive and early target revisions moved higher
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
29
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-3.1
Δ21d
-23.3
Value
53
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-2.4
Sentiment
69
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.6
Δ21d
+10.8
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 28.7 / Value 52.9 / Sentiment 69.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$101.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$82.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$16.49B
Beta
0.93
Shares Out
157.53M
P/E (TTM)
42.3
P/S (TTM)
0.21
P/FCF (TTM)
26.40
Rev YoY
+6.4%
EPS YoY
+22.9%
Gross Margin
+10.7%
Op Margin
+1.4%
Net Debt
$7.69B
Current Ratio
1.51
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data