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PEGA

PegasystemsC
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Cloud ACV growth, strong first-half cash generation, and a differentiated no-per-token-cost AI platform could enable a recovery in recurring growth and support rerating.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.4.
What can break
AI-related client purchasing delays may continue to slow ACV growth and cash generation. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-21]
Momentum
70
Value
61
Sentiment
60
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $36.00 · Bull $45.00 · Bear $24.00Analysis 2026-08-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $43.36
Why
Momentum70 · Δ7d +17.1
Value61 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment60 · Δ7d +1.4
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • AI-related client purchasing delays may continue to slow ACV growth and cash generation. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-21]
  • • An officer reported an open-market sale in May 2026; this is an insider-activity signal only and does not establish an operating trend. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-05-20]
  • • Clients delayed purchases amid rapid AI-market changes; total ACV growth slowed to 7%, first-half revenue declined 1%, and first-half GAAP net income fell 60%.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-21

Q2 2026 results show strong cloud growth but slower overall ACV

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
70
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+17.1
Δ21d
+48.0
Value
61
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-3.7
Sentiment
60
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.4
Δ21d
-9.6
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 69.5 / Value 60.6 / Sentiment 60.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-04. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$45.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$36.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$5.24B
Beta
1.08
Shares Out
164.41M
P/E (TTM)
41.1
P/S (TTM)
5.75
P/FCF (TTM)
23.85
Rev YoY
+9.4%
EPS YoY
-53.0%
Gross Margin
+75.5%
Op Margin
+11.3%
Net Debt
-$351.41M
Current Ratio
1.06
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data