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PEGA

PegasystemsB
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Pega Cloud ACV grew 20% and reached 59% of total ACV. If stronger Q3 additions become sustained contract growth, the 2028 cash-flow objective could regain credibility.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.1.
What can break
Management said AI-related scrutiny of large technology investments and go-to-market execution challenges may continue to weigh on ACV growth and cash flow through 2026. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-20]
Momentum
37
Value
60
Sentiment
64
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $37.00 · Bull $45.00 · Bear $28.00Analysis 2026-10-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $41.00
Why
Momentum37 · Δ7d -26.6
Value60 · Δ7d +0.5
Sentiment64 · Δ7d -2.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Management said AI-related scrutiny of large technology investments and go-to-market execution challenges may continue to weigh on ACV growth and cash flow through 2026. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-20]
  • • Q3 GAAP net income fell 68% year over year, while nine-month non-GAAP net income fell 18%. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-20]
  • • Revenue and adjusted EPS missed reported consensus, total ACV growth slowed, and management identified sales-execution and purchasing-delay risks.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-20

Q3 earnings miss resets the near-term thesis

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
37
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-26.6
Δ21d
-23.1
Value
60
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.5
Δ21d
+0.5
Sentiment
64
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.1
Δ21d
-11.7
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 36.9 / Value 59.8 / Sentiment 63.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-23. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$45.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$37.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$28.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$5.78B
Beta
1.08
Shares Out
163.66M
P/E (TTM)
41.1
P/S (TTM)
5.75
P/FCF (TTM)
23.85
Rev YoY
+9.4%
EPS YoY
-53.0%
Gross Margin
+75.5%
Op Margin
+11.3%
Net Debt
-$351.41M
Current Ratio
1.06
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data