B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$16.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
PEB
Pebblebrook Hotel TrustDNYSE / Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The strongest checked evidence is company-supplied: Q1 materially beat management's own outlook and full-year guidance moved higher, while leverage improved to 5.5x net debt to trailing 12-month corporate EBITDA and liquidity remained solid. If urban recovery and resort ramp persist, the earnings revision path can stay constructive.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.9.
What can break
Hotel REIT earnings remain highly sensitive to business and leisure travel demand, group trends, and local market volatility in key urban markets such as San Francisco and Los Angeles.
Momentum
68
Value
48
Sentiment
33
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $14.25 · Bull $16.00 · Bear $11.00Analysis 2026-04-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $18.95
Why
Momentum68 · Δ7d +21.4
Value48 · Δ7d -
Sentiment33 · Δ7d +3.9
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Hotel REIT earnings remain highly sensitive to business and leisure travel demand, group trends, and local market volatility in key urban markets such as San Francisco and Los Angeles.
- • Management said booking visibility shortened since late March and recent geopolitical events increased macro uncertainty [#8-K-2026-04-28].
- • Management also said booking visibility shortened since late March and that recent geopolitical events raised economic risks and uncertainties.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-15
Q1 beat and raised 2026 outlook
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
68
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+21.4
Δ21d
-7.5
Value
48
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Sentiment
33
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.9
Δ21d
+3.4
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 67.8 / Value 47.7 / Sentiment 32.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-29. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
40%
Probability
Target price
$14.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$11.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.05B
Beta
1.54
Shares Out
112.84M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-20.1
P/S (TTM)
0.90
P/FCF (TTM)
9.59
Rev YoY
-0.1%
EPS YoY
+178.5%
Gross Margin
+10.9%
Op Margin
+7.4%
Net Debt
$2.32B
Current Ratio
0.12
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data