B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$11.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
PBYI
Puma BiotechnologyCNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Q2 print exceeded the packet's limited consensus expectations, NERLYNX product revenue grew year over year, FY2026 revenue and net-income guidance increased, and the company remains debt-free. Alisertib milestones provide additional option value.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.7.
What can break
Higher alisertib R&D spending increases execution and funding sensitivity before clinical validation.
Momentum
80
Value
69
Sentiment
55
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $8.75 · Bull $11.00 · Bear $6.00Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-08
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $6.00
Why
Momentum80 · Δ7d +4.4
Value69 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment55 · Δ7d -2.7
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Higher alisertib R&D spending increases execution and funding sensitivity before clinical validation.
- • NERLYNX remains the principal commercial revenue driver, while royalty revenue and royalty guidance declined.
- • Cash from operations fell to $1.6M from $14.1M year over year, first-half net income declined to $4.4M from $8.8M, cash and marketable securities fell to $93.9M, and R&D increased materially with higher alisertib activity.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-08
Q2 beat and raised full-year outlook
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
80
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.4
Δ21d
+1.3
Value
69
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.6
Sentiment
55
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-2.7
Δ21d
-9.2
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 79.9 / Value 69.2 / Sentiment 55.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$8.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$6.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$455.29M
Beta
1.21
Shares Out
51.62M
P/E (TTM)
8.0
P/S (TTM)
1.41
P/FCF (TTM)
6.98
Rev YoY
+7.8%
EPS YoY
+33.3%
Gross Margin
+74.8%
Op Margin
+13.2%
Net Debt
-$71.07M
Current Ratio
2.91
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data