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PBYI

Puma BiotechnologyC
Nasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 print exceeded the packet's limited consensus expectations, NERLYNX product revenue grew year over year, FY2026 revenue and net-income guidance increased, and the company remains debt-free. Alisertib milestones provide additional option value.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29.
What can break
Higher alisertib R&D spending increases execution and funding sensitivity before clinical validation.
Momentum
96
Value
66
Sentiment
32
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $8.75 · Bull $11.00 · Bear $6.00Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $6.00
Why
Momentum96 · Δ7d +3.3
Value66 · Δ7d -1.0
Sentiment32 · Δ7d -9.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Higher alisertib R&D spending increases execution and funding sensitivity before clinical validation.
  • • NERLYNX remains the principal commercial revenue driver, while royalty revenue and royalty guidance declined.
  • • Cash from operations fell to $1.6M from $14.1M year over year, first-half net income declined to $4.4M from $8.8M, cash and marketable securities fell to $93.9M, and R&D increased materially with higher alisertib activity.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-29

Q2 beat and raised full-year outlook

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
96
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+3.3
Δ21d
+7.4
Value
66
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.0
Δ21d
-1.8
Sentiment
32
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-9.0
Δ21d
-20.8
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 95.9 / Value 66.0 / Sentiment 32.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$11.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$8.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$6.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$568.85M
Beta
1.21
Shares Out
51.62M
P/E (TTM)
8.0
P/S (TTM)
1.41
P/FCF (TTM)
6.98
Rev YoY
+7.8%
EPS YoY
+33.3%
Gross Margin
+74.8%
Op Margin
+13.2%
Net Debt
-$71.07M
Current Ratio
2.91
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data