PAYX
PaychexCNasdaq / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
At close
2026-07-18
Current thesis
The bull case is that Paychex exited fiscal 2026 with accelerating organic growth, a cleaner Paycor integration story, and a potentially differentiated AI/compliance stack, with Q4 results and management commentary supporting durable execution [#SEC-8K-2026-06-24]. If FY2027 growth lands near the upper end of the discussed ranges, the stock can re-rate back toward or above the current median target.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.9.
What can break
AI enthusiasm may be ahead of measurable monetization, since company materials support launch and capability expansion [#SEC-8K-2026-06-24] but do not yet prove large revenue contribution.
Momentum
66
Value
49
Sentiment
37
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $105.60 · Bull $114.00 · Bear $92.00
Data freshness
Prices
As of 2026-07-18
Fundamentals
As of 2026-07-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-07-18 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-07-18
Investment thesis
As of 2026-07-18
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $106.31
Why
Momentum66 · Δ7d +15.0
Value49 · Δ7d -0.9
Sentiment37 · Δ7d -9.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
66
26% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+15.0
Δ21d
+15.7
Value
49
39% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.9
Δ21d
-2.0
Sentiment
37
34% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-9.0
Δ21d
-10.9
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 65.7 / Value 48.8 / Sentiment 37.3
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-07-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-07-17
Market Cap
$40.68B
Beta
0.89
Shares Out
355.6M
P/E (TTM)
24.8
P/S (TTM)
6.51
P/FCF (TTM)
88.83
Rev YoY
+19.9%
EPS YoY
+8.7%
Gross Margin
+73.0%
Op Margin
+36.5%
Net Debt
$3.33B
Current Ratio
1.26
As of 2026-07-18 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology