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PANW

Palo Alto NetworksC
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Fiscal Q4 revenue grew 34% to $3.41 billion, NGS ARR rose 63% to $9.10 billion, RPO increased 34% to $21.2 billion, and adjusted free cash flow reached $1.3 billion. Management also reported nearly $1 billion of net-new NGS ARR and strength across Network & AI Security, Cortex, and Idira [#SEC-8K-2026-09-01].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-27.
What can break
Acquisition contributions can obscure underlying organic NGS ARR and revenue growth, increasing integration and comparability risk.
Momentum
73
Value
47
Sentiment
54
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $399.00 · Bull $430.00 · Bear $275.00Analysis 2026-09-12; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-12 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $404.95
Why
Momentum73 · Δ7d -19.4
Value47 · Δ7d -0.4
Sentiment54 · Δ7d -15.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-27.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -15.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Acquisition contributions can obscure underlying organic NGS ARR and revenue growth, increasing integration and comparability risk.
  • • FY2027 NGS ARR growth guidance of 22%-23% represents a material slowdown from the acquisition-influenced Q4 growth rate.
  • • FY2027 NGS ARR guidance of $11.075-$11.175 billion implies 22%-23% growth, a sharp reported deceleration from Q4's acquisition-influenced 63%.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-31

Fiscal Q1 2027 guidance creates the next operating checkpoint

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
73
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-19.4
Δ21d
-20.8
Value
47
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.4
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
54
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-15.0
Δ21d
-4.2
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 73.2 / Value 46.9 / Sentiment 53.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-12. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$430.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$399.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$275.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$328.59B
Beta
0.75
Shares Out
818M
P/E (TTM)
115.6
P/S (TTM)
13.28
P/FCF (TTM)
34.39
Rev YoY
+31.1%
EPS YoY
-159.6%
Gross Margin
+71.0%
Op Margin
+7.4%
Net Debt
-$2.5B
Current Ratio
0.81
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data