B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$180.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
OSK
OshkoshANYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Access orders and demand, higher NGDV production, and eventual fire-truck throughput improvement could support an earnings recovery. The packet's median analyst target of $168.80 implies approximately 14% upside from the $147.68 anchor, but the analyst count is unavailable.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.4.
What can break
Access demand and orders may not convert into revenue or acceptable margins.
Momentum
78
Value
71
Sentiment
68
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $160.00 · Bull $180.00 · Bear $130.00Analysis 2026-09-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $168.80
Why
Momentum78 · Δ7d -0.3
Value71 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment68 · Δ7d +2.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Access demand and orders may not convert into revenue or acceptable margins.
- • Adverse product mix, higher manufacturing overhead, warranty costs, litigation reserves, and unfavorable price-cost dynamics may pressure margins.
- • The Q2 print showed substantial adjusted operating-margin compression, weaker defense volume, adverse mix, higher manufacturing overhead, and a guidance cut.
Catalyst clock
2026-09-30
Guidance cut and margin pressure digestion
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
78
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
+20.6
Value
71
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+1.2
Sentiment
68
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.4
Δ21d
-4.5
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 78.2 / Value 70.6 / Sentiment 68.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-02. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$160.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$130.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$9.51B
Beta
1.42
Shares Out
61.74M
P/E (TTM)
13.3
P/S (TTM)
0.84
P/FCF (TTM)
13.94
Rev YoY
+6.7%
EPS YoY
-7.7%
Gross Margin
+15.4%
Op Margin
+7.5%
Net Debt
$898.2M
Current Ratio
1.72
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data