B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$24.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
OSCR
Oscar HealthDNYSE / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The post-earnings bull read is straightforward: Q1 showed much stronger-than-baseline profitability, a sharp year-over-year MLR improvement, and guidance held, supporting the idea that 2025 was the reset year and 2026 can deliver real margin recovery.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
2 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Oscar still faces regulatory exposure tied to ACA rules, implementation changes, and the expiration of enhanced Advanced Premium Tax Credits, which can affect demand and profitability [#8-K-2026-05-06] [#10-K-2026-02-13].
Momentum
87
Value
38
Sentiment
34
Setup hits (3d)
2 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $19.00 · Bull $24.50 · Bear $14.50Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $30.82
Why
Momentum87 · Δ7d -1.8
Value38 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment34 · Δ7d -4.7
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • 2 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Oscar still faces regulatory exposure tied to ACA rules, implementation changes, and the expiration of enhanced Advanced Premium Tax Credits, which can affect demand and profitability [#8-K-2026-05-06] [#10-K-2026-02-13].
- • Q1 benefited from favorable prior-period reserve development, so investors still need proof that the margin improvement holds when seasonality becomes less favorable later in the year [#8-K-2026-05-06].
- • The bear read is that Q1 is seasonally favorable and explicitly benefited from reserve development, while the company still flags medical-cost estimation, market morbidity, and risk adjustment as major swing factors.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-31
Q1 beat and reaffirmed 2026 outlook reset the near-term tape, but durability still needs post-print digestion
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
87
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.8
Δ21d
-3.2
Value
38
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
+0.6
Sentiment
34
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.7
Δ21d
-1.9
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 86.8 / Value 38.2 / Sentiment 34.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$19.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$14.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$9.74B
Beta
1.89
Shares Out
308.69M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-18.7
P/S (TTM)
0.39
P/FCF (TTM)
5.96
Rev YoY
+70.4%
EPS YoY
-221.4%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+4.1%
Net Debt
-$2.34B
Current Ratio
1.08
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data