B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$46.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ORRF
Orrstown Financial ServicesBNasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Q2 release supports a cautiously constructive view: loan growth continued, credit indicators improved, core NIM was 4.00% excluding the note-mark charge, wealth-management revenue reached a record, and capital strengthened. The note redemption could provide additional earnings support.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.9.
What can break
Credit deterioration or renewed nonaccrual growth could pressure a small-cap bank multiple.
Momentum
58
Value
63
Sentiment
62
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $43.25 · Bull $46.00 · Bear $36.00Analysis 2026-07-24; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $45.75
Why
Momentum58 · Δ7d +5.6
Value63 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment62 · Δ7d +2.9
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Credit deterioration or renewed nonaccrual growth could pressure a small-cap bank multiple.
- • Deposit balances were modestly lower and funding-cost execution remains important.
- • Sequential net income, EPS, headline NIM, and noninterest income declined.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-21
Q2 results reset the thesis modestly higher
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
58
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.6
Δ21d
-2.2
Value
63
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.0
Sentiment
62
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.9
Δ21d
-1.9
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 57.6 / Value 63.3 / Sentiment 61.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-24. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$43.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$36.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$846.38M
Beta
0.82
Shares Out
19.67M
P/E (TTM)
9.4
P/S (TTM)
2.78
P/FCF (TTM)
16.48
Rev YoY
+0.8%
EPS YoY
+8.3%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+29.8%
Net Debt
$309M
Current Ratio
0.08
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data