B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$41.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
OPLN
OPENLANEDNYSE / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The post-print bull read is that May 5 results showed real operating momentum: dealer and commercial marketplace volumes accelerated, cash flow from operations reached $159.6M, and FY2026 guidance was raised from $350-$370M to $365-$385M adjusted EBITDA with operating adjusted EPS lifted to $1.28-$1.42 [#8-K-2026-05-05].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
What can break
AFC finance receivables growth can create cash-flow volatility because roughly 70% to 75% of the portfolio is funded through securitization facilities and other liquidity sources [#10-Q-2026-05-05].
Momentum
70
Value
54
Sentiment
43
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $34.00 · Bull $41.00 · Bear $28.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $46.22
Why
Momentum70 · Δ7d +2.4
Value54 · Δ7d +0.5
Sentiment43 · Δ7d -0.6
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • AFC finance receivables growth can create cash-flow volatility because roughly 70% to 75% of the portfolio is funded through securitization facilities and other liquidity sources [#10-Q-2026-05-05].
- • Auction and related fee yield fell to 2.7% from 2.9% as commercial mix increased, so volume growth may not fully translate into incremental pricing power [#10-Q-2026-05-05].
- • The bear read is that part of the quarter was helped by a one-time Canadian DST reversal, fee yield compressed on mix, and the stock appears to have already absorbed much of the guidance uplift after a positive post-earnings move.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-05
Q1 beat plus raised FY2026 guidance
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
70
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+2.4
Δ21d
+19.7
Value
54
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.5
Δ21d
+0.9
Sentiment
43
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-0.6
Δ21d
-13.7
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 70.2 / Value 53.8 / Sentiment 42.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$28.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$4.63B
Beta
1.24
Shares Out
122.8M
P/E (TTM)
29.1
P/S (TTM)
1.63
P/FCF (TTM)
15.78
Rev YoY
+15.1%
EPS YoY
+108.6%
Gross Margin
+41.5%
Op Margin
+17.0%
Net Debt
$2.16B
Current Ratio
1.17
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data