B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
OPCH
Option Care HealthCNasdaq / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The constructive view is that OPCH still has national scale, acute therapy growth, maintained 2026 adjusted EPS/EBITDA guidance, and added liquidity via an $850M revolver, so the post-earnings selloff may have over-discounted a therapy-mix issue rather than a full-franchise impairment.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -6.5.
What can break
Chief Growth Officer Christopher L. Grashoff is departing effective May 8, 2026, increasing scrutiny on commercial execution during a growth slowdown. [#8-K-2026-05-05]
Momentum
47
Value
67
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $24.00 · Bull $30.00 · Bear $17.00Analysis 2026-05-06; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-17 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-17
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-17
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-17. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $28.58
Why
Momentum47 · Δ7d +2.9
Value67 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment59 · Δ7d -6.5
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -6.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Chief Growth Officer Christopher L. Grashoff is departing effective May 8, 2026, increasing scrutiny on commercial execution during a growth slowdown. [#8-K-2026-05-05]
- • Management said CID portfolio dynamics, patient attrition, and unfavorable therapy mix are expected to reduce 2026 gross profit by about $55 million. [#10-Q-2026-04-30]
- • The bear view is that chronic inflammatory disease attrition and mix pressure are not transient enough, revenue guidance was cut, gross profit is under pressure, and a growth-function leadership change adds execution risk at the wrong time.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-08
Chief Growth Officer departure raises execution sensitivity
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
47
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.9
Δ21d
+10.6
Value
67
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
59
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.5
Δ21d
-5.3
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 47.5 / Value 66.5 / Sentiment 58.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-06. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$17.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.5B
Beta
0.84
Shares Out
149.79M
P/E (TTM)
25.5
P/S (TTM)
0.92
P/FCF (TTM)
23.15
Rev YoY
+1.9%
EPS YoY
+14.1%
Gross Margin
+17.9%
Op Margin
+5.9%
Net Debt
$1.04B
Current Ratio
1.47
As of 2026-09-17 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data