B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$260.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ONTO
Onto InnovationCNYSE / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 revenue rose 35.3% year over year to $343.1 million, advanced-node revenue grew 50% sequentially, and management reported backlog above $1 billion. Meeting Q3 guidance and sustaining packaging demand could support upside.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.6.
What can break
Backlog conversion delays, customer capital-spending changes, or HBM inspection adoption below expectations.
Momentum
22
Value
56
Sentiment
58
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $215.00 · Bull $260.00 · Bear $160.00Analysis 2026-10-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $383.33
Why
Momentum22 · Δ7d -16.9
Value56 · Δ7d +0.6
Sentiment58 · Δ7d -27.1
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Backlog conversion delays, customer capital-spending changes, or HBM inspection adoption below expectations.
- • Margin pressure or inability to source components and deliver systems as customer demand changes.
- • The Q3 guide demands another substantial sequential revenue increase.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-09
November 9 third-quarter results test raised operating expectations
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
22
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-16.9
Δ21d
-55.9
Value
56
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.6
Δ21d
+2.8
Sentiment
58
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-27.1
Δ21d
+14.5
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 21.9 / Value 55.9 / Sentiment 58.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-23. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$215.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$160.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$9.75B
Beta
1.49
Shares Out
49.07M
P/E (TTM)
50.2
P/S (TTM)
8.83
P/FCF (TTM)
33.86
Rev YoY
+35.3%
EPS YoY
+74.9%
Gross Margin
+49.4%
Op Margin
+19.8%
Net Debt
-$622.15M
Current Ratio
9.73
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data