B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$335.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ONTO
Onto InnovationCNYSE / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The post-earnings bull case is that ONTO combined record Q1 revenue with higher sequential Q2 guidance and tangible advanced-node/HBM customer qualifications, which supports the positive deterministic prior if execution stays on track. [#8-K-2026-05-05]
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
GAAP gross margin compressed to 50.1% from 53.7% year over year, with the 10-Q citing higher excess/obsolete inventory write-downs and $6.1 million of Semilab inventory step-up amortization as important drags. [#8-K-2026-05-05] [#10-Q-2026-05-05]
Momentum
83
Value
53
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $285.00 · Bull $335.00 · Bear $225.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $386.36
Why
Momentum83 · Δ7d +0.0
Value53 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment57 · Δ7d -5.5
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -5.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • GAAP gross margin compressed to 50.1% from 53.7% year over year, with the 10-Q citing higher excess/obsolete inventory write-downs and $6.1 million of Semilab inventory step-up amortization as important drags. [#8-K-2026-05-05] [#10-Q-2026-05-05]
- • Management's own risk language still flags semiconductor capital-spending volatility, supply-chain sourcing, tariffs/trade disputes, and export-regulation changes as material uncertainties for demand and execution. [#8-K-2026-05-05] [#10-K-2026-02-24]
- • The bear case is that GAAP gross margin fell to 50.1% from 53.7% and GAAP EPS fell to $0.67 from $1.30 year over year, while the business still carries customer concentration, inventory, and large capital-allocation execution risk around Rigaku; checked sources also offered only limited clean post-print analyst-revision visibility by May 8, 2026.
Catalyst clock
2026-06-30
Q2 guide keeps the post-earnings setup constructive but execution-sensitive
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
83
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+14.4
Value
53
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-0.7
Sentiment
57
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.5
Δ21d
+16.2
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 82.7 / Value 52.9 / Sentiment 56.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$285.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$225.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$17.23B
Beta
1.49
Shares Out
49.07M
P/E (TTM)
50.2
P/S (TTM)
8.83
P/FCF (TTM)
33.86
Rev YoY
+35.3%
EPS YoY
+74.9%
Gross Margin
+49.4%
Op Margin
+19.8%
Net Debt
-$622.15M
Current Ratio
9.73
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data