B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$40.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ONON
OnBNYSE / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
DTC growth, rising brand awareness, APAC momentum, apparel expansion, full-price discipline, and new product platforms could sustain attractive growth while supporting margins.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Foreign exchange, tariffs, sourcing, freight and broader consumer conditions could pressure margins or demand.
Momentum
6
Value
53
Sentiment
77
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bearish
AI TargetsBase $30.00 · Bull $40.00 · Bear $22.00Analysis 2026-08-30; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-08
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bearish
Target $43.79
Why
Momentum6 · Δ7d -1.5
Value53 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment77 · Δ7d +7.9
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bearish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-09-09.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Foreign exchange, tariffs, sourcing, freight and broader consumer conditions could pressure margins or demand.
- • North American wholesale demand and sell-through may remain weak.
- • The earnings reaction and target cuts indicate that wholesale demand and growth durability are the market's central concerns.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-11
Q2 results and guidance reset
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
6
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-1.5
Δ21d
-4.7
Value
53
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
+4.7
Sentiment
77
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.9
Δ21d
-18.8
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 6.2 / Value 53.0 / Sentiment 76.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-30. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$22.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$10.31B
Beta
2.15
Shares Out
329.37M
P/E (TTM)
57.6
P/S (TTM)
4.45
P/FCF (TTM)
37.06
Rev YoY
+18.7%
EPS YoY
-365.0%
Gross Margin
+64.8%
Op Margin
+13.8%
Net Debt
-$553.87M
Current Ratio
2.83
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data