B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$35.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
OMDA
Omada HealthANasdaq / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 demonstrated strong operating momentum: 43% revenue growth, record 73% gross margin, positive net income, $11 million adjusted EBITDA, expanding PBM and employer distribution, and raised FY26 guidance [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]. The Investor Day and 2027 product expansion could support further estimate revisions.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +20.0.
What can break
CEO transition could create execution or key-person risk despite the planned continuity.
Momentum
83
Value
48
Sentiment
97
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $28.25 · Bull $35.00 · Bear $17.50Analysis 2026-09-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $28.25
Why
Momentum83 · Δ7d +0.2
Value48 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment97 · Δ7d +20.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +20.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • CEO transition could create execution or key-person risk despite the planned continuity.
- • Cholesterol management and prescribing initiatives have limited demonstrated revenue scale; the first prescribing customer is expected to contribute in 2027.
- • The CEO transition, unproven cholesterol and prescribing monetization, limited analyst-revision visibility, and recent founder selling create execution and expectation risks.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-06
Q2 2026 earnings and raised FY26 outlook
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
83
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
+2.6
Value
48
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-2.4
Sentiment
97
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+20.0
Δ21d
+20.4
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 83.0 / Value 48.1 / Sentiment 96.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$28.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$17.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.45B
Beta
-
Shares Out
61.22M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-108.6
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
61.45
Rev YoY
+43.1%
EPS YoY
-189.4%
Gross Margin
+68.1%
Op Margin
-0.1%
Net Debt
-$222.04M
Current Ratio
3.85
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data