B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$27.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
OMDA
Omada HealthDNasdaq / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 member growth of 45%, higher gross margin, and raised 2026 guidance support a case for sustained growth and operating leverage. New programs could extend that growth if contracts convert into measurable revenue.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
What can break
Execution risk around the January 2027 CEO transition. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
Momentum
29
Value
48
Sentiment
50
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $19.50 · Bull $27.00 · Bear $14.00Analysis 2026-10-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $28.42
Why
Momentum29 · Δ7d -1.4
Value48 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment50 · Δ7d -7.2
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Execution risk around the January 2027 CEO transition. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
- • Expanded covered lives and new offerings may convert to revenue more slowly or less profitably than expected. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
- • The raised outlook raises the execution bar.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-31
Deliver raised 2026 outlook
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
29
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-1.4
Δ21d
-12.1
Value
48
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
50
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.2
Δ21d
-0.7
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 29.2 / Value 48.1 / Sentiment 49.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-02. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
40%
Probability
Target price
$19.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$14.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$1.16B
Beta
-
Shares Out
61.22M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-86.6
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
49.03
Rev YoY
+43.1%
EPS YoY
-189.4%
Gross Margin
+68.1%
Op Margin
-0.1%
Net Debt
-$222.04M
Current Ratio
3.85
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data