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OKTA

OktaD
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The primary Q2 release documented 11% revenue growth, 17% RPO growth, 14% cRPO growth, 28% non-GAAP operating margin, and $227M of free cash flow. Management also cited AI-agent identity controls and newer-product contribution.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-26.
What can break
AI-agent and newer-product demand may take time to scale sufficiently to offset moderating core growth.
Momentum
96
Value
49
Sentiment
36
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $182.63 · Bull $200.00 · Bear $145.00Analysis 2026-08-31; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-31 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $217.08
Why
Momentum96 · Δ7d -3.3
Value49 · Δ7d -0.5
Sentiment36 · Δ7d -14.1
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-26.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • AI-agent and newer-product demand may take time to scale sufficiently to offset moderating core growth.
  • • Accelerating the shift of professional-services work to partners creates an approximately one-percentage-point FY27 revenue-growth headwind. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-26]
  • • The release points to approximately 10%–11% FY27 revenue growth and Q3 cRPO growth of 11%–12%, below the latest reported 14%.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-26

Q2 FY27 results and updated outlook

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
96
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-3.3
Δ21d
-4.0
Value
49
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.5
Δ21d
+0.2
Sentiment
36
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-14.1
Δ21d
-7.3
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 95.8 / Value 48.6 / Sentiment 35.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-31. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$200.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$182.63
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$145.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$38.46B
Beta
0.77
Shares Out
174.82M
P/E (TTM)
78.1
P/S (TTM)
5.47
P/FCF (TTM)
17.37
Rev YoY
+11.2%
EPS YoY
+20.1%
Gross Margin
+77.4%
Op Margin
+5.7%
Net Debt
-$2.13B
Current Ratio
1.36
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data