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OKTA

OktaA
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The primary Q2 release documented 11% revenue growth, 17% RPO growth, 14% cRPO growth, 28% non-GAAP operating margin, and $227M of free cash flow. Management also cited AI-agent identity controls and newer-product contribution.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-08.
What can break
AI-agent and newer-product demand may take time to scale sufficiently to offset moderating core growth.
Momentum
86
Value
51
Sentiment
75
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $182.63 · Bull $200.00 · Bear $145.00Analysis 2026-08-31; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-31 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $184.33
Why
Momentum86 · Δ7d +9.6
Value51 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment75 · Δ7d +24.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-08.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +24.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • AI-agent and newer-product demand may take time to scale sufficiently to offset moderating core growth.
  • • Accelerating the shift of professional-services work to partners creates an approximately one-percentage-point FY27 revenue-growth headwind. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-26]
  • • The release points to approximately 10%–11% FY27 revenue growth and Q3 cRPO growth of 11%–12%, below the latest reported 14%.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-26

Q2 FY27 results and updated outlook

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
86
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+9.6
Δ21d
-9.6
Value
51
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+0.5
Sentiment
75
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+24.0
Δ21d
+42.6
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 86.0 / Value 50.8 / Sentiment 75.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-31. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$200.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$182.63
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$145.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$24.9B
Beta
0.77
Shares Out
173.81M
P/E (TTM)
78.1
P/S (TTM)
5.47
P/FCF (TTM)
17.37
Rev YoY
+11.2%
EPS YoY
+20.1%
Gross Margin
+77.4%
Op Margin
+5.7%
Net Debt
-$2.13B
Current Ratio
1.36
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data