B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$12.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
OI
O-I GlassBNYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Strong Americas execution and Fit to Win savings could support earnings recovery if European pricing, energy costs, volumes, and restructuring execution normalize [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +13.3.
What can break
Direct peer evidence is available, but the public comparators differ materially in geography, scale, and business mix.
Momentum
5
Value
54
Sentiment
80
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $8.50 · Bull $12.20 · Bear $5.00Analysis 2026-07-31; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-31 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $9.83
Why
Momentum5 · Δ7d +0.8
Value54 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment80 · Δ7d +13.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +13.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Direct peer evidence is available, but the public comparators differ materially in geography, scale, and business mix.
- • European competitive pricing pressure and elevated energy costs.
- • Q2 fell short of expectations, Europe profitability deteriorated sharply, and management extended the recovery timeline through revised 2026 guidance and realigned 2027 targets.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-28
Q2 results reset the recovery thesis
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
5
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.8
Δ21d
+2.0
Value
54
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-7.7
Sentiment
80
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+13.3
Δ21d
-7.2
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 5.0 / Value 54.2 / Sentiment 80.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-31. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$8.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$5.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.02B
Beta
0.78
Shares Out
153.66M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-7.9
P/S (TTM)
0.36
P/FCF (TTM)
33.95
Rev YoY
-2.2%
EPS YoY
+19384.0%
Gross Margin
+14.4%
Op Margin
+9.8%
Net Debt
$4.44B
Current Ratio
1.26
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data