B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
OHI
Omega Healthcare InvestorsCNYSE / Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The post-earnings bull case is that raised 2026 AFFO guidance, 1.94x pre-management-fee operator coverage, 82.6% occupancy, and continued capital deployment at 10%+ initial yields can offset isolated tenant stress and support modest upside from the April 28, 2026 anchor price.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Genesis remains in Chapter 11, and Omega's guidance assumes continued full contractual payments and later loan repayment.
Momentum
43
Value
64
Sentiment
53
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $48.50 · Bull $52.00 · Bear $43.50Analysis 2026-04-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $51.82
Why
Momentum43 · Δ7d +8.8
Value64 · Δ7d -
Sentiment53 · Δ7d +5.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Genesis remains in Chapter 11, and Omega's guidance assumes continued full contractual payments and later loan repayment.
- • Healthcare reimbursement, minimum staffing rules, labor shortages, and operator cost pressure remain core sector risks for skilled nursing exposure.
- • The bear case is that the market's negative April 29 reaction shows investors remain focused on tenant credit, especially Genesis and CommuniCare, and that guidance still relies on rent collection, asset-sale timing, and no new cash-basis operators.
Catalyst clock
2026-04-29
Q1 print raised AFFO midpoint but market reaction stayed muted
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
43
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.8
Δ21d
-3.3
Value
64
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Sentiment
53
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.6
Δ21d
+0.3
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 43.3 / Value 63.7 / Sentiment 52.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-29. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$48.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$43.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$14.11B
Beta
0.56
Shares Out
303.01M
P/E (TTM)
24.4
P/S (TTM)
11.24
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
371.96
Rev YoY
+16.3%
EPS YoY
+161.3%
Gross Margin
+72.2%
Op Margin
+63.3%
Net Debt
$4.24B
Current Ratio
2.46
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data