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OGC

OceanaGoldA
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 generated $130 million of free cash flow, and management maintained 2026 production and capital guidance while expecting lower second-half unit costs. Delivery on that cost path and reserve conversion at Waihi could support upside [#PR-2026-08-05] [#PR-2026-09-24].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-10-25.
What can break
Gold and copper price changes can materially alter cash flow and the value of operating improvements.
Momentum
41
Value
73
Sentiment
64
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bearish
AI TargetsBase $28.00 · Bull $33.00 · Bear $20.00Analysis 2026-10-22; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-22 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bearish
Why
Momentum41 · Δ7d +0.6
Value73 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment64 · Δ7d +1.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bearish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-10-25.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Gold and copper price changes can materially alter cash flow and the value of operating improvements.
  • • Labour inflation, maintenance spending, unhedged energy costs and lower silver by-product credits pressure all-in sustaining cost [#PR-2026-08-05].
  • • Q2 all-in sustaining cost was $2,151 per ounce, above the full-year guidance range of $1,750–$1,900 per ounce; management expects full-year cost near the range's upper end.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-04

Q3 production and cost test

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
41
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.6
Δ21d
-10.6
Value
73
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
+0.2
Sentiment
64
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.8
Δ21d
-
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 41.4 / Value 72.5 / Sentiment 63.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-22. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$33.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$28.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$20.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$5.52B
Beta
1.13
Shares Out
222.45M
P/E (TTM)
17.3
P/S (TTM)
4.05
P/FCF (TTM)
16.33
Rev YoY
+49.7%
EPS YoY
+102.4%
Gross Margin
+51.6%
Op Margin
+44.3%
Net Debt
-$426.4M
Current Ratio
1.63
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data