B+
Bull case
23%
Probability
Target price
$232.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ODFL
Old Dominion Freight LineANasdaq / Transportation
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The best post-print support is operational: management cited improving demand through the quarter, better yield, strong service metrics, $373.6M of Q1 operating cash flow, and capacity readiness for incremental freight, which keeps the recovery thesis alive despite weak headline YoY comparisons. [#8-K-2026-04-29]
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.1.
What can break
Freight demand is still soft enough that revenue fell 2.9% YoY and LTL tons per day declined 7.7% in Q1, so an uneven industrial backdrop could delay recovery. [#8-K-2026-04-29]
Momentum
24
Value
47
Sentiment
85
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $214.00 · Bull $232.00 · Bear $192.00Analysis 2026-04-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $232.09
Why
Momentum24 · Δ7d -0.3
Value47 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment85 · Δ7d +1.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Freight demand is still soft enough that revenue fell 2.9% YoY and LTL tons per day declined 7.7% in Q1, so an uneven industrial backdrop could delay recovery. [#8-K-2026-04-29]
- • Labor, regulatory, unionization, and cyber-related execution risks remain standing 10-K issues for a high-service freight network. [#10-K-2026-02-24]
- • The bear read is that tonnage and shipments remain down, overhead deleverage pushed operating ratio 80 bps worse YoY, and the market still sold the stock down from the pre-print anchor, signaling skepticism that pricing and service strength can offset a still-soft freight backdrop.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-15
Post-earnings reset after mixed print
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
24
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
+1.8
Value
47
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.9
Sentiment
85
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.1
Δ21d
+16.4
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 23.5 / Value 47.1 / Sentiment 85.1
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-29. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$214.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
32%
Probability
Target price
$192.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$43.95B
Beta
1.28
Shares Out
207.36M
P/E (TTM)
32.9
P/S (TTM)
6.14
P/FCF (TTM)
49.75
Rev YoY
+10.4%
EPS YoY
+32.7%
Gross Margin
+32.3%
Op Margin
+26.0%
Net Debt
$21.3M
Current Ratio
1.89
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data