B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$265.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
NXPI
NXP SemiconductorsBNasdaq / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 revenue rose 19% year over year to $3.50 billion, with automotive up 12% and industrial/IoT up 38%; sustained growth and delivery against Q3 guidance would support upside. The dated manufacturing ramps could improve longer-term supply resilience.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-27 · AMC.
What can break
A reported Citi downgrade citing limited data-center exposure underscores the risk that NXP receives a lower multiple than AI-infrastructure-focused peers.
Momentum
61
Value
63
Sentiment
53
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $225.00 · Bull $265.00 · Bear $185.00Analysis 2026-10-18; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
35 · Disqualified
Next 2026-10-27 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-18 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Earnings Setup
As of 2026-10-26 • RankAlpha AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $306.52
Why
Momentum61 · Δ7d +15.0
Value63 · Δ7d -0.4
Sentiment53 · Δ7d -2.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Earnings surprise screen
35Disqualified2026-10-27 amc
NXPI has a slightly positive Earnings Whispers gap ($4.19 versus $4.14 consensus) and recent business growth context, but Zacks reported a negative ESP and no positive revenue revision was verified; the stock weakened into a sharp SOXX decline, making the setup insufficiently confirmed.
Screen as of 2026-10-26. Window 2026-10-26 to 2026-10-30.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-27 · AMC.
- • Pre-earnings setup: 35 / disqualified.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • A reported Citi downgrade citing limited data-center exposure underscores the risk that NXP receives a lower multiple than AI-infrastructure-focused peers.
- • Automotive and industrial demand or customer inventories may weaken despite Q2 growth; the October 27 outlook is the near-term test. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28]
- • The packet's negative directional prior and October 8 Citi downgrade headline temper the strong Q2 print.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-27 · AMC
October 27 Q3 results test NXP's raised operating trajectory
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
61
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+15.0
Δ21d
+12.0
Value
63
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.4
Δ21d
-1.0
Sentiment
53
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.3
Δ21d
-24.3
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 61.0 / Value 63.4 / Sentiment 53.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-18. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$225.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$185.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$59.24B
Beta
1.47
Shares Out
252.16M
P/E (TTM)
27.7
P/S (TTM)
4.68
P/FCF (TTM)
76.04
Rev YoY
+19.5%
EPS YoY
+72.4%
Gross Margin
+55.1%
Op Margin
+28.7%
Net Debt
$9.23B
Current Ratio
2.04
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data