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NWG

NatWest GroupB
NYSE / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Improved net interest margin from a sustained higher-rate environment plus disciplined capital returns and cost-out could re-rate the ADR toward the top of the analyst range; base is anchored to the provided ANCHOR price (17.9 USD) and the analyst median (~17.83 USD), while the bull case approaches the reported analyst high (19.8 USD).
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
2 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-10-24.
What can break
ADR/USD FX volatility impacting US-listed valuation
Momentum
36
Value
63
Sentiment
58
Setup hits (3d)
2 · Net Bearish
AI TargetsBase $17.90 · Bull $19.80 · Bear $14.00Analysis 2026-01-28; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bearish
Target $21.48
Why
Momentum36 · Δ7d -15.9
Value63 · Δ7d +0.9
Sentiment58 · Δ7d +5.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bearish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 2 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-10-24.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.9.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • ADR/USD FX volatility impacting US-listed valuation
  • • Regulatory actions or capital constraints
  • • Economic slowdown, credit stress or weaker-than-expected NII compress margins and force lower capital returns, pushing the ADR toward the analyst low/into downside stress scenarios; our bear target (14.0 USD) reflects material margin/credit deterioration risk while remaining between the analyst low and the anchor-based base.

Catalyst clock

2026-04-28

FY2025 / Q4 results (expected)

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
36
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-15.9
Δ21d
-31.1
Value
63
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.9
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
58
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.5
Δ21d
-3.4
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 35.6 / Value 63.4 / Sentiment 58.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-28. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$19.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$17.90
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$14.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$66.56B
Beta
0.89
Shares Out
3.96B
P/E (TTM)
10.4
P/S (TTM)
3.11
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-0.52
Rev YoY
+5.5%
EPS YoY
+32.1%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+27.5%
Net Debt
$95.87B
Current Ratio
1.62
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data