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NWG

NatWest GroupC
NYSE / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Improved net interest margin from a sustained higher-rate environment plus disciplined capital returns and cost-out could re-rate the ADR toward the top of the analyst range; base is anchored to the provided ANCHOR price (17.9 USD) and the analyst median (~17.83 USD), while the bull case approaches the reported analyst high (19.8 USD).
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
ADR/USD FX volatility impacting US-listed valuation
Momentum
69
Value
63
Sentiment
58
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $17.90 · Bull $19.80 · Bear $14.00Analysis 2026-01-28; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $21.46
Why
Momentum69 · Δ7d +4.1
Value63 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment58 · Δ7d -0.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • ADR/USD FX volatility impacting US-listed valuation
  • • Regulatory actions or capital constraints
  • • Economic slowdown, credit stress or weaker-than-expected NII compress margins and force lower capital returns, pushing the ADR toward the analyst low/into downside stress scenarios; our bear target (14.0 USD) reflects material margin/credit deterioration risk while remaining between the analyst low and the anchor-based base.

Catalyst clock

2026-04-28

FY2025 / Q4 results (expected)

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
69
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+4.1
Δ21d
-4.3
Value
63
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-9.9
Sentiment
58
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+1.4
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 69.4 / Value 62.6 / Sentiment 58.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-28. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$19.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$17.90
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$14.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$76.33B
Beta
0.89
Shares Out
3.97B
P/E (TTM)
10.4
P/S (TTM)
3.11
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-0.59
Rev YoY
+5.5%
EPS YoY
+32.1%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+27.5%
Net Debt
$95.87B
Current Ratio
1.62
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data