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NTR

NutrienC
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Sustained fertilizer-price recovery, tighter supply or successful strategic actions (asset monetization, redeployment) that expand margins and cash returns, validating upside toward the analyst high (~$85) over multiple quarters.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
5 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Adverse weather reducing crop input demand
Momentum
77
Value
65
Sentiment
52
Setup hits (3d)
5 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $68.00 · Bull $85.00 · Bear $55.00Analysis 2026-01-30; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $76.53
Why
Momentum77 · Δ7d +7.0
Value65 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment52 · Δ7d +1.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 5 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Adverse weather reducing crop input demand
  • • Input/feedstock cost spikes (natural gas, ammonia)
  • • Fertilizer-price normalization, weaker crop economics, or execution shortfalls that compress margins and push valuations toward lower analyst scenarios (near the low-to-mid $50s).

Catalyst clock

2026-04-30

FY2025 / Q4 earnings release and guidance update

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
77
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.0
Δ21d
+36.2
Value
65
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-0.6
Sentiment
52
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.0
Δ21d
-15.6
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 76.6 / Value 64.8 / Sentiment 52.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-30. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$85.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$68.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$55.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$32.59B
Beta
1.17
Shares Out
477.21M
P/E (TTM)
16.7
P/S (TTM)
1.13
P/FCF (TTM)
26.53
Rev YoY
+3.6%
EPS YoY
+1.0%
Gross Margin
+31.0%
Op Margin
+13.8%
Net Debt
$11.32B
Current Ratio
1.39
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data