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NSC

Norfolk SouthernD
NYSE / Transportation
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Bull case assumes successful execution of network investments, sustained pricing power, and limited incremental cash liabilities from legacy incidents, pushing valuation toward higher analyst highs.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
What can break
Inflationary fuel and labor cost pressures
Momentum
72
Value
48
Sentiment
49
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $306.58 · Bull $368.21 · Bear $260.81Analysis 2026-02-06; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $357.06
Why
Momentum72 · Δ7d +2.8
Value48 · Δ7d +0.5
Sentiment49 · Δ7d -0.7
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Inflationary fuel and labor cost pressures
  • • Macroeconomic/demand slowdown for rail freight
  • • Bear case assumes weaker freight demand, surprise remediation costs or settlements above current expectations, and slower operating-ratio improvement, depressing multiple and cash returns.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-07

Q1 2026 quarterly results

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
72
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+2.8
Δ21d
+16.9
Value
48
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.5
Δ21d
-0.2
Sentiment
49
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.7
Δ21d
-10.8
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 72.4 / Value 47.5 / Sentiment 48.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-06. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$368.21
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$306.58
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$260.81
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$74.12B
Beta
1.33
Shares Out
224.61M
P/E (TTM)
22.0
P/S (TTM)
5.28
P/FCF (TTM)
73.33
Rev YoY
+11.4%
EPS YoY
-4.4%
Gross Margin
+32.1%
Op Margin
+32.1%
Net Debt
$16.31B
Current Ratio
0.83
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data