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NRGV

Energy VaultD
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Bull case: Energy Vault proves repeatable multi‑MW deployments, demonstrates clear unit economics, and secures long-term offtake contracts — events that could re-rate the stock toward the analyst high ($7.00). This outcome remains low-probability absent clear commercial scale.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -28.2.
What can break
Downward analyst revisions and liquidity-driven selling
Momentum
77
Value
34
Sentiment
48
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $3.77 · Bull $7.00 · Bear $1.50Analysis 2026-01-17; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $6.21
Why
Momentum77 · Δ7d +0.3
Value34 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment48 · Δ7d -28.2
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -28.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Downward analyst revisions and liquidity-driven selling
  • • Execution delays on commercial deployments
  • • Bear case: Continued deployment delays, weak revenue conversion, or dilutive financings push sentiment and multiples lower, aligning the stock closer to analyst lows ($1.50).

Catalyst clock

2026-04-17

Analyst Day / guidance reset

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
77
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
+66.5
Value
34
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.5
Sentiment
48
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-28.2
Δ21d
-18.2
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 77.5 / Value 34.2 / Sentiment 47.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-17. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$7.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$3.77
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$1.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$694.63M
Beta
0.91
Shares Out
181.84M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-5.9
P/S (TTM)
9.85
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-4.52
Rev YoY
+104.1%
EPS YoY
-17.8%
Gross Margin
+19.5%
Op Margin
-32.8%
Net Debt
$33.42M
Current Ratio
1.19
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data