B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$195.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
NRG
NRG EnergyBNYSE / Utilities
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Post-earnings support rests on management reaffirming full-year 2026 guidance despite a soft quarter, a visible TEF project milestone by late May, and continued shareholder returns. The packet's median analyst target of about $214 suggests sizable upside if investors regain confidence in integration and 2026 cash conversion.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
What can break
LS Power and CPower integration remains a live execution risk, with higher interest expense, depreciation, amortization, and acquisition-related costs already visible in Q1.
Momentum
16
Value
51
Sentiment
78
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $165.00 · Bull $195.00 · Bear $120.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $183.69
Why
Momentum16 · Δ7d -4.1
Value51 · Δ7d +3.6
Sentiment78 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • LS Power and CPower integration remains a live execution risk, with higher interest expense, depreciation, amortization, and acquisition-related costs already visible in Q1.
- • Liquidity fell to about $3.3 billion at March 31, 2026 from about $9.6 billion at December 31, 2025 after funding the acquisition, keeping leverage and credit metrics in focus.
- • The T+3 read is still cautious because Q1 earnings showed lower adjusted EBITDA year over year, higher interest and D&A from the LS Power deal, and weaker liquidity after acquisition funding.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-31
T.H. Wharton TEF project targeted for commercial operations by end of May
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
16
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.1
Δ21d
+2.3
Value
51
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.6
Δ21d
+1.9
Sentiment
78
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 16.1 / Value 50.8 / Sentiment 78.1
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$165.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$120.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$19.4B
Beta
1.26
Shares Out
210.21M
P/E (TTM)
24.2
P/S (TTM)
1.04
P/FCF (TTM)
23.86
Rev YoY
+11.1%
EPS YoY
-473.7%
Gross Margin
+13.0%
Op Margin
+5.5%
Net Debt
$11.88B
Current Ratio
0.97
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data