RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

NPKI

NPK InternationalB
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
Q2 revenue grew 20% year over year and adjusted EBITDA grew about 37%; sustained rental demand, guidance delivery and added Carencro capacity could support higher earnings [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29] (SEC earnings exhibit).
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · AMC.
What can break
Project timing and mat redeployment could weaken utilization or rental margins [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29] (SEC earnings exhibit).
Momentum
20
Value
60
Sentiment
60
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $11.50 · Bull $14.50 · Bear $7.50Analysis 2026-10-16; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $20.00
Why
Momentum20 · Δ7d +2.2
Value60 · Δ7d -0.2
Sentiment60 · Δ7d -0.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · AMC.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Project timing and mat redeployment could weaken utilization or rental margins [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29] (SEC earnings exhibit).
  • • The $40 million–$45 million Carencro expansion carries schedule, cost and return-on-investment risk [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29] (SEC earnings exhibit).
  • • Large-project completions make fleet redeployment uncertain.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-29 · AMC

Delivery against 2026 guidance

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
20
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+2.2
Δ21d
+0.2
Value
60
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
+0.8
Sentiment
60
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-15.4
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 19.8 / Value 60.3 / Sentiment 60.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-16. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$14.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$11.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$7.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$924.67M
Beta
1.29
Shares Out
84.91M
P/E (TTM)
32.6
P/S (TTM)
4.10
P/FCF (TTM)
373.65
Rev YoY
+19.6%
EPS YoY
+37.5%
Gross Margin
+35.1%
Op Margin
+17.4%
Net Debt
$24.04M
Current Ratio
1.61
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data