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NPK

National Presto IndustriesD
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Bull case: stronger-than-expected defense contract awards plus margin expansion in housewares drive re-rating toward premium multiples, validating a materially higher multiple on 2027 earnings.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.6.
What can break
Commodity and input-cost pressure affecting margins
Momentum
87
Value
51
Sentiment
40
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $125.00 · Bull $160.00 · Bear $105.00Analysis 2026-02-20; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-20 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $162.00
Why
Momentum87 · Δ7d +3.3
Value51 · Δ7d -0.6
Sentiment40 · Δ7d +1.1
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Commodity and input-cost pressure affecting margins
  • • Revenue concentration by legacy product lines
  • • Bear case: softer consumer demand or delayed defense awards compresses revenue and margins, returning multiple to low historical levels and pushing shares below current levels.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-21

Defense-segment contract timing / wins

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
87
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+3.3
Δ21d
+1.6
Value
51
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.6
Δ21d
-1.0
Sentiment
40
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+1.1
Δ21d
-5.5
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 86.8 / Value 51.1 / Sentiment 40.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-20. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$160.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$125.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$105.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$1.06B
Beta
0.53
Shares Out
7.14M
P/E (TTM)
20.3
P/S (TTM)
1.66
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
55.28
Rev YoY
+21.7%
EPS YoY
+207.0%
Gross Margin
+16.2%
Op Margin
+9.3%
Net Debt
$29.31M
Current Ratio
5.22
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data