B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$20.22
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
NPCE
NeuroPaceDNasdaq / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
NeuroPace has verified commercial momentum in core RNS, a raised 2026 revenue outlook, a growing prescriber and patient pipeline, and a newly FDA-approved AI feature [#SEC-8K-2026-05-12] [#IR-2026-05-29].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -7.8.
What can break
Adoption and monetization of ECoG Assistant are not yet evidenced beyond the FDA approval announcement [#IR-2026-05-29].
Momentum
18
Value
36
Sentiment
63
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $16.50 · Bull $20.22 · Bear $11.00Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $19.78
Why
Momentum18 · Δ7d +7.1
Value36 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment63 · Δ7d -7.8
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -7.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Adoption and monetization of ECoG Assistant are not yet evidenced beyond the FDA approval announcement [#IR-2026-05-29].
- • Low coverage, unavailable analyst target count and loose peers limit confidence in valuation and forward estimates.
- • The T+3 earnings update remains unverified, so current revenue, margin, cash-flow and regulatory momentum cannot be confirmed.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-11
T+3 earnings follow-up lacks verified Q2 disclosure
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
18
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.1
Δ21d
-7.5
Value
36
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
63
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.8
Δ21d
-12.4
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 17.5 / Value 36.3 / Sentiment 62.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$16.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$11.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$443.13M
Beta
1.86
Shares Out
34.32M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-19.7
P/S (TTM)
5.53
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-37.54
Rev YoY
+17.1%
EPS YoY
-30.9%
Gross Margin
+79.6%
Op Margin
-15.3%
Net Debt
$9.78M
Current Ratio
4.94
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data