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NOV

NOVD
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Bull case: persistent offshore/onshore rig activity recovery, continued strong free‑cash‑flow conversion and shareholder returns, plus upside from selective energy‑transition contracts (SMR/supply chain) lift multiples toward the current analyst high.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.4.
What can break
Energy‑transition investments fail to scale or monetize
Momentum
55
Value
55
Sentiment
51
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $17.25 · Bull $22.00 · Bear $12.00Analysis 2026-02-05; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-05 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $22.44
Why
Momentum55 · Δ7d +7.3
Value55 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment51 · Δ7d +4.4
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Energy‑transition investments fail to scale or monetize
  • • Execution or cost overruns on large projects
  • • Bear case: cyclicality in drilling capex, softer than guided Q1 EBITDA, or weaker oil prices reduce backlog and margins; execution risks on new energy initiatives and any legal/operational liabilities could weigh on multiple contraction.

Catalyst clock

2025-12-10

Sale of Shepherd Power and SMR supply‑chain positioning

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
55
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.3
Δ21d
-11.4
Value
55
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
-6.1
Sentiment
51
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.4
Δ21d
+0.2
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 54.8 / Value 55.0 / Sentiment 51.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-05. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$22.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$17.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$12.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$7.7B
Beta
0.94
Shares Out
356.48M
P/E (TTM)
17.5
P/S (TTM)
0.73
P/FCF (TTM)
9.31
Rev YoY
-2.5%
EPS YoY
+7.7%
Gross Margin
+21.4%
Op Margin
+6.9%
Net Debt
$788M
Current Ratio
2.42
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data