RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

NOV

NOVC
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
Bull case: persistent offshore/onshore rig activity recovery, continued strong free‑cash‑flow conversion and shareholder returns, plus upside from selective energy‑transition contracts (SMR/supply chain) lift multiples toward the current analyst high.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-27 · AMC.
What can break
Energy‑transition investments fail to scale or monetize
Momentum
26
Value
56
Sentiment
50
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $17.25 · Bull $22.00 · Bear $12.00Analysis 2026-02-05; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-27 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-05 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $22.59
Why
Momentum26 · Δ7d +12.5
Value56 · Δ7d -0.5
Sentiment50 · Δ7d -3.8
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-27 · AMC.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Energy‑transition investments fail to scale or monetize
  • • Execution or cost overruns on large projects
  • • Bear case: cyclicality in drilling capex, softer than guided Q1 EBITDA, or weaker oil prices reduce backlog and margins; execution risks on new energy initiatives and any legal/operational liabilities could weigh on multiple contraction.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-27 · AMC

Sale of Shepherd Power and SMR supply‑chain positioning

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
26
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+12.5
Δ21d
-5.4
Value
56
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.5
Δ21d
-0.3
Sentiment
50
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.8
Δ21d
-10.7
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 26.2 / Value 56.1 / Sentiment 50.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-05. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$22.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$17.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$12.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$7.04B
Beta
0.94
Shares Out
356.48M
P/E (TTM)
17.5
P/S (TTM)
0.73
P/FCF (TTM)
9.31
Rev YoY
-2.5%
EPS YoY
+7.7%
Gross Margin
+21.4%
Op Margin
+6.9%
Net Debt
$788M
Current Ratio
2.42
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data