B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$31.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
NOG
Northern Oil and GasCNYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The SEC-filed Q2 release showed 9% year-over-year production growth, record natural gas production, adjusted EBITDA up 17% sequentially, free cash flow up 26% year over year, reiterated full-year guidance, and continued buybacks and acquisition activity [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
What can break
Acquisition, Ground Game, and Duvernay execution may not deliver expected returns.
Momentum
92
Value
55
Sentiment
48
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $24.00 · Bull $31.00 · Bear $17.00Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $31.36
Why
Momentum92 · Δ7d +4.2
Value55 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment48 · Δ7d -3.3
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Acquisition, Ground Game, and Duvernay execution may not deliver expected returns.
- • Oil-hedge losses and volatile commodity prices may pressure realized results and cash flow.
- • Waha-related curtailments, realized oil-hedge losses, commodity-price sensitivity, and execution risk on Duvernay and Ground Game transactions could offset the positive print.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-12
Q2 results provide a positive but unconfirmed earnings signal
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
92
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.2
Δ21d
+34.2
Value
55
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.2
Sentiment
48
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.3
Δ21d
-24.0
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 92.5 / Value 54.5 / Sentiment 48.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$17.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$3.01B
Beta
1.02
Shares Out
106.55M
P/E (TTM)
11.8
P/S (TTM)
0.86
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-6.00
Rev YoY
+16.8%
EPS YoY
+118.5%
Gross Margin
+33.6%
Op Margin
+29.6%
Net Debt
$2.38B
Current Ratio
0.80
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data