B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$31.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
NOG
Northern Oil and GasBNYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The SEC-filed Q2 release showed 9% year-over-year production growth, record natural gas production, adjusted EBITDA up 17% sequentially, free cash flow up 26% year over year, reiterated full-year guidance, and continued buybacks and acquisition activity [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.3.
What can break
Acquisition, Ground Game, and Duvernay execution may not deliver expected returns.
Momentum
94
Value
55
Sentiment
60
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $24.00 · Bull $31.00 · Bear $17.00Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $30.20
Why
Momentum94 · Δ7d -4.3
Value55 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment60 · Δ7d +8.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Acquisition, Ground Game, and Duvernay execution may not deliver expected returns.
- • Oil-hedge losses and volatile commodity prices may pressure realized results and cash flow.
- • Waha-related curtailments, realized oil-hedge losses, commodity-price sensitivity, and execution risk on Duvernay and Ground Game transactions could offset the positive print.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-12
Q2 results provide a positive but unconfirmed earnings signal
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
94
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.3
Δ21d
+9.3
Value
55
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-1.4
Sentiment
60
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.3
Δ21d
+0.7
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 93.6 / Value 54.5 / Sentiment 60.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$17.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.72B
Beta
1.02
Shares Out
106.55M
P/E (TTM)
11.8
P/S (TTM)
0.86
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-5.42
Rev YoY
+16.8%
EPS YoY
+118.5%
Gross Margin
+33.6%
Op Margin
+29.6%
Net Debt
$2.38B
Current Ratio
0.80
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data