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NOC

Northrop GrummanC
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 sales rose 5% year over year to $10.9 billion, net awards reached $20 billion, backlog hit $105 billion, and management raised 2026 sales and MTM-adjusted EPS guidance. B-21 capacity and Sentinel testing offer identifiable longer-term milestones [#SEC-8K-2026-07-21].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.6.
What can break
B-21 fixed-price production costs and estimate-at-completion adjustments may offset higher output [#REL-ba3e9507-3559-4d89-ab39-b760e0ffe878].
Momentum
49
Value
56
Sentiment
48
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $515.00 · Bull $585.00 · Bear $390.00Analysis 2026-10-01; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-01 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $635.57
Why
Momentum49 · Δ7d -2.0
Value56 · Δ7d -1.6
Sentiment48 · Δ7d -6.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • B-21 fixed-price production costs and estimate-at-completion adjustments may offset higher output [#REL-ba3e9507-3559-4d89-ab39-b760e0ffe878].
  • • Government procurement concentration, contract timing and backlog conversion can create results volatility [#REL-c253007c-2bc8-4eeb-a3c2-223f4ebfab02].
  • • B-21 estimated-cost pressure, weaker Defense and Space operating income in Q2, and Boeing's F/A-XX selection temper the backlog thesis.

Catalyst clock

2026-09-29

Navy F/A-XX award to Boeing

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
49
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.0
Δ21d
-3.1
Value
56
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.6
Δ21d
-4.1
Sentiment
48
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.0
Δ21d
-23.6
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 49.2 / Value 55.9 / Sentiment 47.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-01. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$585.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$515.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$390.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$78.34B
Beta
0.03
Shares Out
142.06M
P/E (TTM)
22.0
P/S (TTM)
2.13
P/FCF (TTM)
152.80
Rev YoY
+5.1%
EPS YoY
-5.8%
Gross Margin
+20.1%
Op Margin
+10.7%
Net Debt
$13.48B
Current Ratio
1.15
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data