B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$47.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
NNN
NNN REITCNYSE / Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull case is that Q1 validated NNN's steady net-lease model: occupancy improved to 98.6%, acquisition cap rates stayed constructive at 7.5%, and management nudged up both AFFO and Core FFO guidance [#8-K-2026-04-30].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.1.
What can break
At T+3, delayed analyst target changes or estimate revisions were not clearly visible in checked sources, reducing confidence in a sustained post-earnings rerating.
Momentum
47
Value
60
Sentiment
52
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $45.00 · Bull $47.00 · Bear $40.00Analysis 2026-05-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $48.00
Why
Momentum47 · Δ7d +3.5
Value60 · Δ7d -
Sentiment52 · Δ7d +8.1
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • At T+3, delayed analyst target changes or estimate revisions were not clearly visible in checked sources, reducing confidence in a sustained post-earnings rerating.
- • Diluted EPS was down slightly year over year despite revenue growth, which may keep some investors focused on slower headline earnings conversion.
- • The bear case is that the earnings revision was small, headline diluted EPS slipped to $0.50 from $0.51 year over year, and the T+3 external revision signal still appears thin, limiting evidence for a near-term rerating despite solid operations.
Catalyst clock
2026-04-30
Q1 print and guidance raise confirm stable operating momentum
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
47
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.5
Δ21d
-3.2
Value
60
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Sentiment
52
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.1
Δ21d
+5.9
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 47.2 / Value 59.7 / Sentiment 51.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-03. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$45.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$40.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$8.86B
Beta
0.85
Shares Out
191.93M
P/E (TTM)
19.1
P/S (TTM)
8.37
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
39.71
Rev YoY
+7.7%
EPS YoY
-3.9%
Gross Margin
+67.0%
Op Margin
+61.4%
Net Debt
$4.83B
Current Ratio
0.11
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data