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NMG

Nouveau Monde GraphiteD
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The financed Matawinie construction launch, Canadian take-or-pay commitment for 30,000 tonnes per year and a successful Bécancour investment decision could improve confidence in an integrated graphite supply chain. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-08-13] NMG Q2 update
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Bécancour financing, due diligence or economics could delay or prevent the targeted H2 2026 investment decision. NMG Q2 update
Momentum
58
Value
34
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $1.00 · Bull $1.45 · Bear $0.55Analysis 2026-10-17; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $2.94
Why
Momentum58 · Δ7d -
Value34 · Δ7d -21.6
Sentiment59 · Δ7d -
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Bécancour financing, due diligence or economics could delay or prevent the targeted H2 2026 investment decision. NMG Q2 update
  • • Matawinie construction cost, schedule, commissioning and eventual production remain unproven despite the completed investment decision. NMG Q2 update
  • • Bécancour still requires an investment decision and capital structure; mine construction, future production and coating-scale validation carry substantial execution risk.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-31

Bécancour investment decision

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
58
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
34
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-21.6
Δ21d
+0.0
Sentiment
59
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 57.6 / Value 33.9 / Sentiment 59.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-17. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$1.45
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$1.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$0.55
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$313.14M
Beta
1.10
Shares Out
329.16M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-1.9
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-4.06
Rev YoY
-
EPS YoY
-127.9%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
-
Net Debt
-$40.25M
Current Ratio
4.10
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data