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NIO

NIOA
NYSE / Automobiles & Components
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 showed strong year-over-year delivery and revenue growth, materially higher margins, positive adjusted operating profit, and positive adjusted net profit. Cash and equivalents, restricted cash, investments, and deposits totaled RMB56.7 billion, while the expanded NIO, ONVO, and FIREFLY portfolio supports continued volume growth.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
What can break
Chinese EV market weakness, pricing competition, commodity and semiconductor costs could pressure margins.
Momentum
13
Value
36
Sentiment
100
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $5.00 · Bull $7.00 · Bear $3.00Analysis 2026-09-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $5.96
Why
Momentum13 · Δ7d -5.0
Value36 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment100 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Chinese EV market weakness, pricing competition, commodity and semiconductor costs could pressure margins.
  • • Higher selling and marketing expenses and ongoing product investment may delay sustainable free-cash-flow generation.
  • • GAAP losses continued, gross margin declined sequentially, and Q3 guidance appears weaker than market expectations.

Catalyst clock

2026-09-01

Q2 results improved sharply but did not eliminate profitability risk

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
13
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-5.0
Δ21d
+0.8
Value
36
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.2
Sentiment
100
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 12.7 / Value 36.2 / Sentiment 100.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-04. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$7.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$5.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$3.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$11.39B
Beta
1.86
Shares Out
2.33B
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-5.1
P/S (TTM)
1.21
P/FCF (TTM)
-
Rev YoY
+123.0%
EPS YoY
-93.6%
Gross Margin
+15.7%
Op Margin
-8.4%
Net Debt
-$2.08B
Current Ratio
1.01
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data