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NIO

NIOC
NYSE / Automobiles & Components
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
NIO's investor-relations release confirms Q2 deliveries increased 49.4% year over year, revenue increased 69.1%, vehicle margin reached 18.5%, and adjusted operating profit was RMB206.9 million. Achieving the Q3 delivery and revenue ranges could validate improving operating leverage [#IR-2026-09-01-Q2].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.3.
What can break
Failure to deliver approximately 36,230-39,230 vehicles in September would put the 108,000-111,000 Q3 delivery guide at risk.
Momentum
25
Value
36
Sentiment
81
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $4.10 · Bull $6.00 · Bear $2.40Analysis 2026-09-12; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-12 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $5.70
Why
Momentum25 · Δ7d +4.7
Value36 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment81 · Δ7d +6.3
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Failure to deliver approximately 36,230-39,230 vehicles in September would put the 108,000-111,000 Q3 delivery guide at risk.
  • • NIO remained GAAP-loss-making in Q2 despite positive adjusted operating profit, leaving execution and cash-generation risk.
  • • Company releases confirm August deliveries grew only 14.5% year over year and remained below June's 40,597 units, leaving meaningful September execution necessary to reach Q3 guidance.

Catalyst clock

2026-09-30

NIO China stake-purchase settlement remains a near-term funding checkpoint

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
25
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+4.7
Δ21d
+18.2
Value
36
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-0.2
Sentiment
81
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.3
Δ21d
-9.3
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 25.1 / Value 35.8 / Sentiment 80.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-12. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$6.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$4.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$2.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$8.1B
Beta
1.86
Shares Out
2.36B
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-3.6
P/S (TTM)
1.21
P/FCF (TTM)
-
Rev YoY
+123.0%
EPS YoY
-93.6%
Gross Margin
+15.7%
Op Margin
-8.4%
Net Debt
-$2.08B
Current Ratio
1.01
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data