B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$118.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
NICE
NICECNasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Primary sources support a real operating base for the bull case: cloud revenue was 76% of 2025 revenue, cloud revenue grew 12.8% in 2025, cloud gross margin improved to 65.6%, and management entered 2026 guiding to 14.5%-15.0% cloud growth while highlighting rising AI ARR and backlog [#10K-2026-02-27] [#PR-2026-02-19].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.7.
What can break
Cloud-growth guidance fails to convert into visible quarterly acceleration.
Momentum
68
Value
68
Sentiment
39
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $103.00 · Bull $118.00 · Bear $88.00Analysis 2026-04-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $129.67
Why
Momentum68 · Δ7d +4.5
Value68 · Δ7d -0.7
Sentiment39 · Δ7d -7.1
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Cloud-growth guidance fails to convert into visible quarterly acceleration.
- • Cognigy integration adds cost and execution risk before clear revenue synergies appear.
- • The bearish read is that most current upside still depends on proof not yet delivered: the Epic launch is new, ENGAGE 2026 is more narrative than revenue, and NiCE's own 20-F lists a dense competitor set across CCaaS, digital engagement, WEM, and agentic AI [#PR-2026-04-13] [#PR-2026-04-15] [#10K-2026-02-27].
Catalyst clock
2026-05-31
Q1/Q2 2026 execution must validate the February cloud and AI setup
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
68
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.5
Δ21d
+7.0
Value
68
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.7
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
39
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.1
Δ21d
-11.6
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 67.7 / Value 68.2 / Sentiment 38.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-15. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$103.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$88.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$7.28B
Beta
0.35
Shares Out
58.44M
P/E (TTM)
13.0
P/S (TTM)
2.44
P/FCF (TTM)
10.17
Rev YoY
+7.2%
EPS YoY
-52.9%
Gross Margin
+65.1%
Op Margin
+18.9%
Net Debt
-$328.59M
Current Ratio
1.33
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data