B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$118.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
NICE
NICEBNasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Primary sources support a real operating base for the bull case: cloud revenue was 76% of 2025 revenue, cloud revenue grew 12.8% in 2025, cloud gross margin improved to 65.6%, and management entered 2026 guiding to 14.5%-15.0% cloud growth while highlighting rising AI ARR and backlog [#10K-2026-02-27] [#PR-2026-02-19].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +11.9.
What can break
Cloud-growth guidance fails to convert into visible quarterly acceleration.
Momentum
37
Value
70
Sentiment
68
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $103.00 · Bull $118.00 · Bear $88.00Analysis 2026-04-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $122.17
Why
Momentum37 · Δ7d +8.4
Value70 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment68 · Δ7d +11.9
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +11.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Cloud-growth guidance fails to convert into visible quarterly acceleration.
- • Cognigy integration adds cost and execution risk before clear revenue synergies appear.
- • The bearish read is that most current upside still depends on proof not yet delivered: the Epic launch is new, ENGAGE 2026 is more narrative than revenue, and NiCE's own 20-F lists a dense competitor set across CCaaS, digital engagement, WEM, and agentic AI [#PR-2026-04-13] [#PR-2026-04-15] [#10K-2026-02-27].
Catalyst clock
2026-05-31
Q1/Q2 2026 execution must validate the February cloud and AI setup
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
37
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.4
Δ21d
-11.1
Value
70
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.2
Sentiment
68
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+11.9
Δ21d
-0.5
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 37.5 / Value 70.1 / Sentiment 67.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-15. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$103.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$88.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$5.83B
Beta
0.35
Shares Out
58.44M
P/E (TTM)
13.0
P/S (TTM)
2.44
P/FCF (TTM)
10.17
Rev YoY
+7.2%
EPS YoY
-52.9%
Gross Margin
+65.1%
Op Margin
+18.9%
Net Debt
-$328.59M
Current Ratio
1.33
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data