B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$86.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
NHI
National Health InvestorsCNYSE / Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Q2 print supports a constructive thesis: SHOP NOI is scaling rapidly, the NHC sale materially de-levered the balance sheet, liquidity supports additional private-pay senior-housing investments, and the dividend was raised. The main upside path is successful deployment of capital without deterioration in same-store operating metrics.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.0.
What can break
2026 guidance depends on unidentified new investments and approximately $665 million of dispositions.
Momentum
28
Value
58
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $77.00 · Bull $86.00 · Bear $62.00Analysis 2026-08-13; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-13 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $81.56
Why
Momentum28 · Δ7d +6.2
Value58 · Δ7d -
Sentiment57 · Δ7d +8.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • 2026 guidance depends on unidentified new investments and approximately $665 million of dispositions.
- • Acquisition-led SHOP growth may not translate into durable same-store NOI growth.
- • The growth profile is acquisition-dependent, normalized FFO declined year over year, same-store operating results were mixed, and 2026 guidance depends on $180 million of unidentified investments plus substantial dispositions.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-11
SHOP growth and balance-sheet reset after Q2
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
28
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.2
Δ21d
+3.5
Value
58
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Sentiment
57
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.0
Δ21d
+5.4
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 28.2 / Value 58.0 / Sentiment 57.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-13. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$77.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$62.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.61B
Beta
0.68
Shares Out
49.11M
P/E (TTM)
24.0
P/S (TTM)
10.22
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
72.65
Rev YoY
+33.7%
EPS YoY
+45.3%
Gross Margin
+52.6%
Op Margin
+45.3%
Net Debt
$1.14B
Current Ratio
3.93
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data