B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$86.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
NHI
National Health InvestorsBNYSE / Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Q2 print supports a constructive thesis: SHOP NOI is scaling rapidly, the NHC sale materially de-levered the balance sheet, liquidity supports additional private-pay senior-housing investments, and the dividend was raised. The main upside path is successful deployment of capital without deterioration in same-store operating metrics.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.2.
What can break
2026 guidance depends on unidentified new investments and approximately $665 million of dispositions.
Momentum
35
Value
60
Sentiment
66
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $77.00 · Bull $86.00 · Bear $62.00Analysis 2026-08-13; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-28 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-13 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-28
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $78.56
Why
Momentum35 · Δ7d -0.5
Value60 · Δ7d -
Sentiment66 · Δ7d +1.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • 2026 guidance depends on unidentified new investments and approximately $665 million of dispositions.
- • Acquisition-led SHOP growth may not translate into durable same-store NOI growth.
- • The growth profile is acquisition-dependent, normalized FFO declined year over year, same-store operating results were mixed, and 2026 guidance depends on $180 million of unidentified investments plus substantial dispositions.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-11
SHOP growth and balance-sheet reset after Q2
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
35
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-0.5
Δ21d
+2.5
Value
60
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Sentiment
66
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.2
Δ21d
-8.6
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 34.8 / Value 60.0 / Sentiment 65.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-13. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$77.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$62.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-28
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-28
Market Cap
$3.23B
Beta
0.68
Shares Out
49.11M
P/E (TTM)
24.0
P/S (TTM)
10.22
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
65.00
Rev YoY
+33.7%
EPS YoY
+45.3%
Gross Margin
+52.6%
Op Margin
+45.3%
Net Debt
$1.14B
Current Ratio
3.93
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data