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NGVT

IngevityA
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 sales excluding divested Road Markings rose 5%, adjusted EBITDA rose 14%, and adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 36.6%; sustained execution could support the raised full-year outlook [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
What can break
Q2 operating cash flow was negative $15.8 million, affected by a $113.2 million litigation settlement payment [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].
Momentum
69
Value
60
Sentiment
60
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $74.00 · Bull $86.00 · Bear $57.00Analysis 2026-10-18; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-18 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $90.67
Why
Momentum69 · Δ7d -14.9
Value60 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment60 · Δ7d +0.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Q2 operating cash flow was negative $15.8 million, affected by a $113.2 million litigation settlement payment [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].
  • • Raised full-year guidance depends on second-half execution despite management's measured outlook [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].
  • • Reported Q2 sales fell 5%, management called the second-half outlook measured, and some polymer improvement reflected competitor supply disruptions that may fade [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].

Catalyst clock

2026-11-04

November 4 third-quarter results test raised guidance

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
69
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-14.9
Δ21d
-12.5
Value
60
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.4
Sentiment
60
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+0.4
Δ21d
-16.7
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 68.8 / Value 59.5 / Sentiment 59.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-18. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$86.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$74.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$57.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$2.39B
Beta
1.34
Shares Out
34.38M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-15.1
P/S (TTM)
1.71
P/FCF (TTM)
9.14
Rev YoY
-5.3%
EPS YoY
-125.9%
Gross Margin
+39.0%
Op Margin
+24.6%
Net Debt
$1.16B
Current Ratio
1.61
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data