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NGVT

IngevityB
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 showed broad operating improvement: adjusted EBITDA rose 14%, margins expanded, ex-divestiture sales grew 5%, and management raised full-year EBITDA guidance. Deleveraging, repurchases and portfolio simplification strengthen the equity case [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.1.
What can break
APT strategic-alternatives execution and any resulting cost-structure changes remain uncertain; guidance assumes no transaction proceeds.
Momentum
21
Value
60
Sentiment
77
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $84.00 · Bull $95.00 · Bear $61.00Analysis 2026-07-31; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-31 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $90.67
Why
Momentum21 · Δ7d +1.6
Value60 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment77 · Δ7d +6.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • APT strategic-alternatives execution and any resulting cost-structure changes remain uncertain; guidance assumes no transaction proceeds.
  • • Measured second-half outlook, projected auto-production decline and planned Performance Materials maintenance outages.
  • • The second-half outlook remains measured.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-29

Q2 earnings and outlook raise

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
21
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.6
Δ21d
-32.1
Value
60
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-3.5
Sentiment
77
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.1
Δ21d
+11.7
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 20.8 / Value 59.9 / Sentiment 77.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-31. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$95.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$84.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$61.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.61B
Beta
1.34
Shares Out
34.38M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-16.4
P/S (TTM)
1.71
P/FCF (TTM)
9.14
Rev YoY
-5.3%
EPS YoY
-125.9%
Gross Margin
+39.0%
Op Margin
+24.6%
Net Debt
$1.16B
Current Ratio
1.61
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data