B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$42.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
NGNE
NeurogeneFNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Primary company disclosures show meaningful execution: Breakthrough Therapy designation, full enrollment in Embolden, more than half of participants dosed, and a planned mid-2026 data update keep NGN-401 on a credible late-stage path [#IR-2026-02-26][#IR-2026-03-24].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.8.
What can break
Cash burn or manufacturing delays could pull financing needs forward despite runway guidance into Q1 2028
Momentum
79
Value
41
Sentiment
24
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $24.00 · Bull $42.00 · Bear $9.00Analysis 2026-04-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $79.13
Why
Momentum79 · Δ7d +3.5
Value41 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment24 · Δ7d +2.8
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Cash burn or manufacturing delays could pull financing needs forward despite runway guidance into Q1 2028
- • Mid-2026 data could disappoint on efficacy durability or safety
- • NGNE remains essentially a single-lead-program biotech, so any slip in Embolden dosing, weaker-than-expected mid-2026 data, or safety/regulatory setbacks could compress the equity sharply despite recent progress [#IR-2026-03-24][#10-Q-2025-11-13].
Catalyst clock
2026-06-30
Embolden dosing completion targeted for Q2 2026
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
79
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.5
Δ21d
-4.8
Value
41
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
24
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.8
Δ21d
+5.5
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 79.4 / Value 41.2 / Sentiment 23.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-15. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$9.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$734.02M
Beta
1.61
Shares Out
20.01M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-8.7
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-8.60
Rev YoY
-100.0%
EPS YoY
+46.3%
Gross Margin
-244.8%
Op Margin
-9702.2%
Net Debt
-$259.12M
Current Ratio
10.63
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data