B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$8.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
NEXT
NextDecadeDNasdaq / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
NEXT has moved materially beyond a pure concept story: Train 4 and Train 5 reached FID in 2025, Trains 1-5 are funded, management says Phase 1 is ahead of guaranteed completion dates, and first LNG is targeted for the first half of 2027 [#10-K-2026-03-02] [#PR-2026-03-02]. If those milestones continue to hold, the stock can re-rate as commissioning risk falls.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.9.
What can break
Construction delays, cost creep, or commissioning issues at Rio Grande LNG could quickly erode confidence in the 1H27 first-LNG target.
Momentum
43
Value
33
Sentiment
61
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $7.10 · Bull $8.60 · Bear $5.40Analysis 2026-04-20; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-20 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $8.70
Why
Momentum43 · Δ7d +15.9
Value33 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment61 · Δ7d +7.9
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Construction delays, cost creep, or commissioning issues at Rio Grande LNG could quickly erode confidence in the 1H27 first-LNG target.
- • Open-volume marketing and LNG macro volatility could weaken expected portfolio margins or reduce enthusiasm for incremental trains.
- • The thesis is still fragile because equity value remains exposed to construction execution, parent-level cash needs, regulatory process around further expansion, and a long wait for visible cash generation.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-01
May 1, 2026 first-quarter update can confirm schedule and early marketing traction
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
43
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+15.9
Δ21d
+28.7
Value
33
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.0
Sentiment
61
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.9
Δ21d
-7.6
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 42.6 / Value 32.7 / Sentiment 61.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-20. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$7.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$5.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.85B
Beta
2.00
Shares Out
266.19M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-5.9
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-0.32
Rev YoY
-
EPS YoY
+5.8%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
-
Net Debt
$7.95B
Current Ratio
0.37
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data