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NEXA

Nexa ResourcesA
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Approval and closing could narrow the gap between Nexa's $12.10 October 21 anchor price and the $15.29 per-share value implied for Votorantim's stake, while sustained mining and smelting gains could add operating support. Neither the closing nor that price for minority holders is guaranteed [#PR-BOLIDEN-2026-08-27] [#PR-NEXA-2026-08-05].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · AMC.
What can break
Boliden shareholder or regulatory approval may fail or delay the proposed 1Q27 closing [#PR-BOLIDEN-2026-08-27].
Momentum
48
Value
71
Sentiment
63
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $13.20 · Bull $15.30 · Bear $9.50Analysis 2026-10-22; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-22 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $14.37
Why
Momentum48 · Δ7d -1.8
Value71 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment63 · Δ7d +6.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · AMC.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Boliden shareholder or regulatory approval may fail or delay the proposed 1Q27 closing [#PR-BOLIDEN-2026-08-27].
  • • Nexa's higher estimated Cerro Pasco project cost and delayed pumping-system milestones increase execution and permitting risk [#PR-NEXA-2026-08-05].
  • • A failed or delayed transaction, a lower-than-anticipated minority tender price, weaker zinc economics, or failure to sustain 2Q26 margins could erase event-driven upside.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-29 · AMC

Boliden shareholder vote

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
48
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.8
Δ21d
+20.4
Value
71
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
63
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.1
Δ21d
-11.5
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 48.2 / Value 70.6 / Sentiment 63.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-22. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$15.30
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$13.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$9.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$1.52B
Beta
0.52
Shares Out
132.44M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
11.5
P/S (TTM)
0.42
P/FCF (TTM)
17.38
Rev YoY
+26.5%
EPS YoY
+6217.1%
Gross Margin
+25.6%
Op Margin
+20.8%
Net Debt
$1.28B
Current Ratio
0.80
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data