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NEXA

Nexa ResourcesB
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The transaction reference of US$15.29 and official IR average target of US$15.08 imply roughly 9%-10% upside from the US$13.85 anchor. Strong 2Q26 operating performance, lower Cerro Lindo streaming, improved leverage and expected integration benefits support the positive case [#IR-2026-08-05] [#IR-2026-08-27].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
2 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Cajamarquilla smelting output was affected by a May fire, while Cerro Pasco estimated CAPEX increased from US$138 million to US$180 million and tailings completion moved to 1Q27 [#IR-2026-08-05].
Momentum
69
Value
70
Sentiment
65
Setup hits (3d)
2 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $15.08 · Bull $16.50 · Bear $11.50Analysis 2026-09-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $15.08
Why
Momentum69 · Δ7d -0.5
Value70 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment65 · Δ7d -5.6
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 2 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -5.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Cajamarquilla smelting output was affected by a May fire, while Cerro Pasco estimated CAPEX increased from US$138 million to US$180 million and tailings completion moved to 1Q27 [#IR-2026-08-05].
  • • Peer comparability is weak and social, options, short-interest and employee-sentiment data are unavailable.
  • • The main downside is execution rather than current-quarter operations: shareholder and regulatory approvals remain outstanding, the tender offer is post-closing, and S&P has flagged potential change-of-control pressure through CreditWatch.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-03

Boliden transaction advances toward closing

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
69
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-0.5
Δ21d
+7.3
Value
70
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.9
Sentiment
65
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.6
Δ21d
-2.2
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 68.5 / Value 70.5 / Sentiment 65.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-04. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$16.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$15.08
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$11.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.9B
Beta
0.52
Shares Out
132.44M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
14.4
P/S (TTM)
0.42
P/FCF (TTM)
17.38
Rev YoY
+26.5%
EPS YoY
+6217.1%
Gross Margin
+25.6%
Op Margin
+20.8%
Net Debt
$1.28B
Current Ratio
0.80
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data