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NCNO

nCinoD
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 subscription growth, early large-bank renewals, improved operating margin and higher free cash flow support the case for durable banking-platform demand. The company guided to fiscal 2027 revenue of $644 million–$647 million and free cash flow of $137 million–$142 million.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.6.
What can break
AI adoption, asset-based pricing migration and large-customer retention remain execution risks; four renewals are encouraging but not proof of broad uptake. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-25] SEC earnings exhibit
Momentum
53
Value
54
Sentiment
38
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $20.00 · Bull $24.00 · Bear $14.00Analysis 2026-09-30; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $24.23
Why
Momentum53 · Δ7d +14.3
Value54 · Δ7d -0.6
Sentiment38 · Δ7d -10.6
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • AI adoption, asset-based pricing migration and large-customer retention remain execution risks; four renewals are encouraging but not proof of broad uptake. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-25] SEC earnings exhibit
  • • Debt and discretionary buybacks could constrain flexibility if cash generation weakens; the new $100 million authorization has no required purchase amount or expiration date. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-25] SEC earnings exhibit
  • • Total revenue growth was only 8%, and AI expansion among four large customers does not prove a company-wide acceleration.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-25

Q2 beat and margin improvement face a growth discount

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
53
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+14.3
Δ21d
-13.9
Value
54
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.6
Δ21d
-1.2
Sentiment
38
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-10.6
Δ21d
-31.7
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 52.6 / Value 54.0 / Sentiment 38.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-30. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$20.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$14.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$2.45B
Beta
0.56
Shares Out
105.74M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
504.8
P/S (TTM)
4.79
P/FCF (TTM)
47.05
Rev YoY
+10.6%
EPS YoY
+161.2%
Gross Margin
+58.2%
Op Margin
+7.0%
Net Debt
$190.18M
Current Ratio
0.84
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data