B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
NCNO
nCinoANasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Q2 print showed improving profitability and cash generation, strong early renewals, expanded AI commitments, and continued customer consolidation on the platform. The new repurchase authorization may provide technical support.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.9.
What can break
$275.4M of credit-facility borrowings versus $83.6M of cash and restricted cash; buybacks increase capital-allocation sensitivity.
Momentum
84
Value
55
Sentiment
80
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $25.00 · Bull $30.00 · Bear $18.50Analysis 2026-08-28; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $24.08
Why
Momentum84 · Δ7d +1.2
Value55 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment80 · Δ7d +7.9
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • $275.4M of credit-facility borrowings versus $83.6M of cash and restricted cash; buybacks increase capital-allocation sensitivity.
- • Competition, pricing pressure, customer consolidation, and dependence on large financial-institution customers.
- • The market appears focused on the slower growth profile and earnings-expectation gap rather than the margin improvement.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-31
Insider-selling overhang
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
84
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.2
Δ21d
+23.7
Value
55
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+1.3
Sentiment
80
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.9
Δ21d
+15.5
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 84.3 / Value 55.0 / Sentiment 80.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-28. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$25.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$18.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.22B
Beta
0.56
Shares Out
109.55M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
440.7
P/S (TTM)
4.79
P/FCF (TTM)
47.05
Rev YoY
+10.6%
EPS YoY
+161.2%
Gross Margin
+58.2%
Op Margin
+7.0%
Net Debt
$190.18M
Current Ratio
0.84
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data