B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$49.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
NC
NACCO IndustriesBNYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull case is that Q2’s substantial gross-profit and Adjusted EBITDA improvement reflects durable segment momentum, while disciplined investment and debt reduction improve the equity story into 2027.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Management expects operating performance to moderate in the second half of 2026.
Momentum
100
Value
35
Sentiment
70
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $43.00 · Bull $49.00 · Bear $32.00Analysis 2026-09-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-08
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Why
Momentum100 · Δ7d -
Value35 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment70 · Δ7d -
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Management expects operating performance to moderate in the second half of 2026.
- • Operational issues at a Mississippi Lignite Mining Company customer power plant affected results.
- • The bear case is that second-half moderation, customer power-plant operating issues, weaker unconsolidated-mine earnings, and further solar impairments offset the reported operating improvement.
Catalyst clock
2026-09-15
Quarterly dividend payment
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
100
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
35
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Sentiment
70
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 100.0 / Value 35.4 / Sentiment 69.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$43.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$32.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$313.26M
Beta
0.48
Shares Out
7.55M
P/E (TTM)
12.0
P/S (TTM)
1.23
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-19.04
Rev YoY
+6.0%
EPS YoY
-129.2%
Gross Margin
+18.2%
Op Margin
-10.2%
Net Debt
$61.61M
Current Ratio
3.30
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data