B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$180.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
NBIX
Neurocrine BiosciencesBNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 revenue grew 39% year over year to $959 million, supported by INGREZZA, CRENESSITY and newly acquired VYKAT XR. Sustained uptake plus successful 2027 clinical readouts could support a higher valuation.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.5.
What can break
Higher R&D spending and the post-acquisition reduction in cash narrow near-term financial flexibility, although Neurocrine reported $1 billion of available revolving-credit capacity at June 30. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
Momentum
51
Value
63
Sentiment
56
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $145.00 · Bull $180.00 · Bear $105.00Analysis 2026-09-30; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $207.19
Why
Momentum51 · Δ7d -7.7
Value63 · Δ7d -0.5
Sentiment56 · Δ7d -5.6
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Higher R&D spending and the post-acquisition reduction in cash narrow near-term financial flexibility, although Neurocrine reported $1 billion of available revolving-credit capacity at June 30. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
- • INGREZZA growth or CRENESSITY reimbursement may slow relative to Q2 trends. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
- • VYKAT XR must justify a $2.9 billion acquisition while clinical readouts remain binary.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-31
VYKAT XR uptake after the Soleno acquisition
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
51
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.7
Δ21d
+8.9
Value
63
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.5
Δ21d
-0.8
Sentiment
56
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.6
Δ21d
-6.6
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 50.9 / Value 63.2 / Sentiment 56.1
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-30. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$145.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$105.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$14.51B
Beta
0.31
Shares Out
101.65M
P/E (TTM)
32.5
P/S (TTM)
5.05
P/FCF (TTM)
22.86
Rev YoY
+39.5%
EPS YoY
+30.2%
Gross Margin
+97.5%
Op Margin
+23.9%
Net Debt
-$1.01B
Current Ratio
1.87
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data