B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$195.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
NBIX
Neurocrine BiosciencesBNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Diversified commercial growth is accelerating: Q2 revenue reached $959 million, INGREZZA guidance was raised, CRENESSITY continued strong demand, and VYKAT XR adds a rare-disease growth platform. The 2027 late-stage pipeline provides additional optionality.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
7 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Clinical efficacy, regulatory, and execution risk around the 2027 Phase 3 readouts.
Momentum
14
Value
64
Sentiment
76
Setup hits (3d)
7 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $171.00 · Bull $195.00 · Bear $140.00Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $210.76
Why
Momentum14 · Δ7d +3.2
Value64 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment76 · Δ7d +8.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • 7 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Clinical efficacy, regulatory, and execution risk around the 2027 Phase 3 readouts.
- • Recent Form 4 records show open-market sales by multiple officers and a director; insider activity is not evidence of operating results. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-07-30]
- • The acquisition must be integrated successfully, VYKAT XR uptake and reimbursement remain execution-dependent, and 2027 clinical readouts carry efficacy and regulatory risk.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-30
Q2 growth and raised INGREZZA guidance strengthen the operating baseline
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
14
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.2
Δ21d
-14.3
Value
64
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+1.1
Sentiment
76
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.2
Δ21d
+1.1
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 14.2 / Value 64.2 / Sentiment 76.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$171.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$140.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$15.7B
Beta
0.31
Shares Out
101.65M
P/E (TTM)
32.5
P/S (TTM)
5.05
P/FCF (TTM)
22.86
Rev YoY
+39.5%
EPS YoY
+30.2%
Gross Margin
+97.5%
Op Margin
+23.9%
Net Debt
-$1.01B
Current Ratio
1.87
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data