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NBIS

Nebius GroupF
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The supported bull case is that Nebius is still showing extraordinary top-line and capacity momentum: Q4 2025 revenue rose to $227.7 million, core AI cloud revenue reached $214.2 million, year-end ARR exceeded guidance at $1.25 billion, and management maintained a far larger 2026 ARR ambition while adding large strategic counterparties and financing support [#PR-2026-02-12] [#6K-2026-03-11] [#6K-2026-03-16].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
4 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-08.
What can break
As of April 29, 2026, this T+1 follow-up did not surface a confirmed company Q1 earnings release, 6-K, or webcast notice, leaving the immediate earnings surprise and revision signal unavailable.
Momentum
88
Value
41
Sentiment
13
Setup hits (3d)
4 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $150.00 · Bull $175.00 · Bear $105.00Analysis 2026-04-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $296.83
Why
Momentum88 · Δ7d +10.0
Value41 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment13 · Δ7d -12.7
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 4 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-08.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • As of April 29, 2026, this T+1 follow-up did not surface a confirmed company Q1 earnings release, 6-K, or webcast notice, leaving the immediate earnings surprise and revision signal unavailable.
  • • Capital intensity is extreme: Q4 2025 capex was about $2.1 billion and full-year 2025 purchases of property and equipment were about $4.066 billion, which can pressure free cash flow and keep depreciation elevated.
  • • The supported bear case is that the setup is still mainly a financing-and-buildout story with limited fresh earnings confirmation on April 29, 2026; Q4 capital expenditures were about $2.1 billion, 2025 capex was about $4.1 billion, depreciation remains very high, Meta deployments begin in 2027, and there was no confirmed company Q1 release available in this run to validate near-term utilization, margins, or guidance durability.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-31

Q1 2026 results timing remains unconfirmed on company channels

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
88
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+10.0
Δ21d
+4.2
Value
41
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+5.0
Sentiment
13
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-12.7
Δ21d
+3.7
Why this grade

Composite grade F. Momentum 88.2 / Value 41.3 / Sentiment 13.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-29. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$175.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
0%
Probability
Target price
$150.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$105.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$73.09B
Beta
-
Shares Out
271.86M
P/E (TTM)
103.4
P/S (TTM)
67.87
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
142.53
Rev YoY
+454.0%
EPS YoY
-127.7%
Gross Margin
+18.8%
Op Margin
-49.3%
Net Debt
$1.29B
Current Ratio
4.03
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data