B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$27.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
NAVN
NavanDNasdaq / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 revenue grew 35% to $233 million, gross booking volume grew 45%, and Navan raised FY2027 revenue guidance to $927–933 million. Record signed demand could support continued customer ramps if it converts into platform activity [#SEC-8K-2026-09-09].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.6.
What can break
GAAP operating margin deteriorated to negative 11% from negative 7% year over year in Q2, contrasting with improved non-GAAP margin [#SEC-8K-2026-09-09].
Momentum
98
Value
36
Sentiment
40
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $22.00 · Bull $27.00 · Bear $14.00Analysis 2026-09-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-29 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-29 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-29
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-29
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-29. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $30.80
Why
Momentum98 · Δ7d +9.0
Value36 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment40 · Δ7d +0.6
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • GAAP operating margin deteriorated to negative 11% from negative 7% year over year in Q2, contrasting with improved non-GAAP margin [#SEC-8K-2026-09-09].
- • Navan does not provide a forward GAAP reconciliation for its non-GAAP operating guidance because excluded expenses are uncertain and could be material [#SEC-8K-2026-09-09].
- • Q2 GAAP operating loss widened to approximately $26 million from $12 million despite improving non-GAAP profit.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-31
Q3 revenue and operating-margin delivery
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
98
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+9.0
Δ21d
+81.9
Value
36
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
40
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.6
Δ21d
-20.3
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 97.7 / Value 36.2 / Sentiment 40.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-29. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$22.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$14.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-29
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-29
Market Cap
$6.94B
Beta
-
Shares Out
260.64M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-16.7
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM)
-
Rev YoY
+39.9%
EPS YoY
-66.8%
Gross Margin
+67.7%
Op Margin
-24.9%
Net Debt
-$645.8M
Current Ratio
4.27
As of 2026-10-29 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data