B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$4.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
NABL
N-ableDNYSE / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 showed continued subscription growth, 6% ARR growth, 28.9% adjusted EBITDA margin, and management cited continued AI and cybersecurity demand. The $3.24 anchor price is below the packet's $5.08 median analyst target, though coverage is thin.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.4.
What can break
AI, Shadow AI Visibility, and data-protection initiatives lack confirmed adoption or financial contribution [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10].
Momentum
81
Value
57
Sentiment
26
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $3.65 · Bull $4.75 · Bear $2.60Analysis 2026-08-13; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-13 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-28
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $4.68
Why
Momentum81 · Δ7d +14.8
Value57 · Δ7d -0.4
Sentiment26 · Δ7d -5.5
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • AI, Shadow AI Visibility, and data-protection initiatives lack confirmed adoption or financial contribution [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10].
- • Debt materially exceeds cash, increasing sensitivity to slower growth or weaker cash generation [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10].
- • The full-year ARR outlook was reduced materially from the prior-quarter range, while organizational changes and a new CRO create execution risk.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-11
CRO and partner-channel execution
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
81
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+14.8
Δ21d
+19.6
Value
57
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.4
Δ21d
-0.5
Sentiment
26
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.5
Δ21d
-16.7
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 81.3 / Value 57.1 / Sentiment 25.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-13. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$3.65
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$2.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$969.09M
Beta
0.61
Shares Out
188.91M
P/E (TTM)
542.1
P/S (TTM)
2.76
P/FCF (TTM)
18.80
Rev YoY
+5.9%
EPS YoY
-138.0%
Gross Margin
+76.3%
Op Margin
+2.6%
Net Debt
$318.52M
Current Ratio
1.28
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data