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NABL

N-ableC
NYSE / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 showed continued subscription growth, 6% ARR growth, 28.9% adjusted EBITDA margin, and management cited continued AI and cybersecurity demand. The $3.24 anchor price is below the packet's $5.08 median analyst target, though coverage is thin.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.7.
What can break
AI, Shadow AI Visibility, and data-protection initiatives lack confirmed adoption or financial contribution [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10].
Momentum
8
Value
61
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $3.65 · Bull $4.75 · Bear $2.60Analysis 2026-08-13; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-13 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $5.08
Why
Momentum8 · Δ7d +1.8
Value61 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment57 · Δ7d +3.7
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • AI, Shadow AI Visibility, and data-protection initiatives lack confirmed adoption or financial contribution [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10].
  • • Debt materially exceeds cash, increasing sensitivity to slower growth or weaker cash generation [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10].
  • • The full-year ARR outlook was reduced materially from the prior-quarter range, while organizational changes and a new CRO create execution risk.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-11

CRO and partner-channel execution

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
8
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.8
Δ21d
+1.9
Value
61
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-4.8
Sentiment
57
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.7
Δ21d
-7.4
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 7.7 / Value 60.8 / Sentiment 57.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-13. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$4.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$3.65
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$2.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$617.72M
Beta
0.61
Shares Out
188.91M
P/E (TTM)
542.1
P/S (TTM)
2.76
P/FCF (TTM)
18.80
Rev YoY
+5.9%
EPS YoY
-138.0%
Gross Margin
+76.3%
Op Margin
+2.6%
Net Debt
$318.52M
Current Ratio
1.28
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data