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MWA

Mueller Water ProductsB
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q3 result supports a constructive operating thesis: record net sales, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EPS, improved free cash flow, and higher FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance indicate continued execution and margin expansion. A target median of $31.00 versus the $27.09 anchor implies approximately 14.4% upside, but target count and range are unavailable.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.8.
What can break
No verified post-earnings consensus comparison, analyst estimate revision, price-target revision, or market-reaction attribution is available; the packet supplies only the August 6 anchor price of $27.09.
Momentum
37
Value
65
Sentiment
75
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $26.00 · Bull $32.00 · Bear $22.50Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $31.00
Why
Momentum37 · Δ7d -6.7
Value65 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment75 · Δ7d +5.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • No verified post-earnings consensus comparison, analyst estimate revision, price-target revision, or market-reaction attribution is available; the packet supplies only the August 6 anchor price of $27.09.
  • • Reported insider activity includes a tax-withholding disposition and an open-market sale; these are secondary signals and do not establish an operating outlook. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-10] [#SEC-FORM4-2026-05-29]
  • • Strong operating momentum may already be reflected in the price, while slower new residential construction and external uncertainty remain explicit management concerns.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-05

Strong Q3 print and higher FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
37
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.7
Δ21d
+1.0
Value
65
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+3.6
Sentiment
75
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.8
Δ21d
+8.5
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 37.0 / Value 64.5 / Sentiment 74.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$32.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$26.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$22.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.93B
Beta
1.17
Shares Out
156.13M
P/E (TTM)
19.7
P/S (TTM)
2.63
P/FCF (TTM)
28.85
Rev YoY
+4.1%
EPS YoY
+28.2%
Gross Margin
+37.9%
Op Margin
+20.9%
Net Debt
$32.9M
Current Ratio
4.64
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data