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MWA

Mueller Water ProductsB
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Fiscal Q3 net sales rose 4.1% to $395.9 million, adjusted EBITDA increased 24.3% to $107.4 million, adjusted EBITDA margin reached 27.1%, and nine-month free cash flow increased to $110.6 million. Sustained pricing and productivity could support further earnings growth.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.4.
What can break
Analyst target coverage and post-earnings estimate revisions are unavailable, making valuation support less reliable.
Momentum
38
Value
65
Sentiment
54
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $22.00 · Bull $29.50 · Bear $17.50Analysis 2026-09-18; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-18 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $27.00
Why
Momentum38 · Δ7d +10.1
Value65 · Δ7d -0.4
Sentiment54 · Δ7d -1.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Analyst target coverage and post-earnings estimate revisions are unavailable, making valuation support less reliable.
  • • Fiscal Q3 margin expansion benefited partly from tariff refunds and lower incentive compensation, limiting confidence that the full improvement is structural.
  • • The quarter included slightly lower volumes, slower residential construction, inflation and external uncertainty.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-17

Fiscal 2026 guidance delivery

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
38
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+10.1
Δ21d
+15.6
Value
65
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.4
Δ21d
-1.0
Sentiment
54
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.4
Δ21d
-12.1
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 37.7 / Value 64.8 / Sentiment 53.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-18. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$29.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$22.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$17.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$3.48B
Beta
1.17
Shares Out
156.13M
P/E (TTM)
19.7
P/S (TTM)
2.63
P/FCF (TTM)
28.85
Rev YoY
+4.1%
EPS YoY
+28.2%
Gross Margin
+37.9%
Op Margin
+20.9%
Net Debt
$32.9M
Current Ratio
4.64
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data