B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$565.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MUSA
Murphy USACNYSE / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull read is that Q1 was not just an accounting beat: total fuel contribution rose to 35.0 cpg from 25.4 cpg, merchandise contribution increased 7.3% to $210.2 million, volumes grew 2.1%, and management said March strength carried into April with expected all-in margins of 35-40 cpg [#8-K-2026-04-29]. If that cadence holds, the company has room to outperform its original 2026 operating framework.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · AMC.
What can break
Balance-sheet leverage is not trivial for a retailer pursuing ongoing buybacks and store growth, with about $2.16 billion of long-term debt plus $183 million drawn on the revolver at December 31, 2025 [#IR-2026-02-04].
Momentum
65
Value
59
Sentiment
47
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $500.00 · Bull $565.00 · Bear $430.00Analysis 2026-04-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-28 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $617.10
Why
Momentum65 · Δ7d -1.2
Value59 · Δ7d +0.3
Sentiment47 · Δ7d +3.4
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · AMC.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Balance-sheet leverage is not trivial for a retailer pursuing ongoing buybacks and store growth, with about $2.16 billion of long-term debt plus $183 million drawn on the revolver at December 31, 2025 [#IR-2026-02-04].
- • Murphy USA remains meaningfully tied to Walmart traffic and contractual rights retained by Walmart, and the 10-K also flags EV adoption and nicotine regulation as longer-run demand and margin risks [#10-K-2026-02-18].
- • The bear read is that Q1 benefited heavily from market-driven pricing effects, inventory timing, and unusually strong fuel-supply/RIN contribution, while same-store fuel volumes still fell 0.8% and management admitted discretionary non-nicotine spending remains restrained [#8-K-2026-04-29].
Catalyst clock
2026-10-28 · AMC
Post-print Q&A and any delayed analyst revisions are the next credibility check
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
65
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.2
Δ21d
+2.9
Value
59
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
-0.7
Sentiment
47
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.4
Δ21d
-12.2
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 65.1 / Value 59.4 / Sentiment 47.1
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-29. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$500.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$430.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$9.83B
Beta
0.38
Shares Out
18.38M
P/E (TTM)
17.6
P/S (TTM)
0.40
P/FCF (TTM)
23.81
Rev YoY
+36.0%
EPS YoY
+53.0%
Gross Margin
+5.5%
Op Margin
+4.4%
Net Debt
$2.71B
Current Ratio
0.92
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data