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MUR

Murphy OilC
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The bull read is that Q1 showed solid execution: production beat the top end of guidance, Eagle Ford wells showed better 60-day oil performance, FY2026 production guidance was maintained at 167-175 MBOEPD, and offshore/Vietnam milestones create multiple second-half and 2027 rerating points. [#8-K-2026-05-06]
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
What can break
Capital spending and exploration intensity stayed elevated in Q1, with higher activity in Cote d'Ivoire, the Gulf of America, and Vietnam; if these programs slip or disappoint, free-cash-flow conversion could stay pressured. [#10-Q-2026-05-06]
Momentum
82
Value
59
Sentiment
44
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $34.00 · Bull $42.00 · Bear $28.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $42.38
Why
Momentum82 · Δ7d +3.3
Value59 · Δ7d -0.4
Sentiment44 · Δ7d -4.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Capital spending and exploration intensity stayed elevated in Q1, with higher activity in Cote d'Ivoire, the Gulf of America, and Vietnam; if these programs slip or disappoint, free-cash-flow conversion could stay pressured. [#10-Q-2026-05-06]
  • • Commodity-price exposure remains material; the 10-Q states profitability depends heavily on oil and gas prices, and Murphy uses derivatives only to manage part of that risk. [#10-Q-2026-05-06]
  • • The bear read is that elevated exploration and development spending remains heavy, 2Q guidance of 161-169 MBOEPD steps down from Q1 actual production, peer confirmation is loose, and delayed post-print analyst revision evidence is still thin at T+3.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-08

Q1 beat with production above guidance but largely digested

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
82
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+3.3
Δ21d
+13.2
Value
59
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.4
Δ21d
-1.2
Sentiment
44
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.0
Δ21d
-21.9
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 81.6 / Value 59.0 / Sentiment 43.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
22%
Probability
Target price
$42.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
48%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$28.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$6.36B
Beta
0.78
Shares Out
143.38M
P/E (TTM)
31.3
P/S (TTM)
1.60
P/FCF (TTM)
17.88
Rev YoY
+35.6%
EPS YoY
+921.0%
Gross Margin
+28.9%
Op Margin
+21.6%
Net Debt
$1.82B
Current Ratio
0.85
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data