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MTRX

Matrix ServiceC
Nasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The operating reset appears to be producing a second consecutive profitable quarter, with stronger Storage and Terminal Solutions volume, improved Utility and Power Infrastructure execution, lower SG&A, no debt, and substantial liquidity. Successful backlog conversion, margin recovery, and one or more large awards could support upside.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -5.8.
What can break
Management expects to use cash in the first half of fiscal 2027 to support field activities, increasing working-capital execution sensitivity.
Momentum
17
Value
49
Sentiment
71
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $11.50 · Bull $16.00 · Bear $8.00Analysis 2026-09-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-09-02 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $16.00
Why
Momentum17 · Δ7d -1.2
Value49 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment71 · Δ7d -5.8
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -5.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Management expects to use cash in the first half of fiscal 2027 to support field activities, increasing working-capital execution sensitivity.
  • • No formal fiscal 2027 guidance until a permanent CFO is hired and completes a business assessment.
  • • The Q4 print was operationally improved but slightly below external EPS and revenue consensus, total book-to-bill was only 0.7x, Process and Industrial Facilities revenue and margin weakened, and management provided no formal FY2027 guidance.

Catalyst clock

2026-09-30

Return to profitability after Q4 FY2026 print

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
17
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.2
Δ21d
+2.4
Value
49
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.5
Sentiment
71
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.8
Δ21d
+1.0
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 17.1 / Value 48.9 / Sentiment 71.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$16.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$11.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$8.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-09-02
Market Cap
$337.04M
Beta
0.94
Shares Out
28.13M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-131.4
P/S (TTM)
0.44
P/FCF (TTM)
4.94
Rev YoY
+3.3%
EPS YoY
-123.7%
Gross Margin
+6.2%
Op Margin
-1.4%
Net Debt
-$203.21M
Current Ratio
0.90
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data